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Current Win Probability
Leicester Tigers 69.3%
Draw 3.7%
Bristol Rugby 27%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
70.1%
4.1%
25.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
68.4%
4.2%
26.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leicester Tigers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
Bristol Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leicester Tigers than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol Rugby than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
Leicester Tigers - Bristol Rugby Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:26
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Smith N.
1. Woolmore J.
2. Blamire J.
2. Oghre G.
3. Heyes J.
3. Kloska G.
4. Liebenberg H.
4. Dun J.
5. Chessum O. (C)
5. Owen J.
6. Moro J.
6. Luatua S.
7. Watson H.
7. Harding F. (C)
8. Cracknell O.
8. Bill
9. Whiteley T.
9. Randall H.
10. Searle B.
10. Worsley S.
11. Hassell-Collins O.
11. Ibitoye G.
12. Bailey O.
12. Williams J.
13. Wand W.
13. Janse van Rensburg B.
14. Hamer-Webb G.
14. Ravouvou K.
15. Steward F.
15. Heward N.
Substitutes
16. Theobald-Thomas F.
16. Gwilliam T.
17. van der Flier A.
17. Lahiff M.
18. Hurd W.
18. Chawatama L.
19. Thomas O.
19. Taylor G.
20. Palmer H.
20. Grondona S.
21. van Poortvliet J.
21. Marmion K.
22. O'Connor J.
22. Moroni M.
23. Perese I.
23. Boshoff A.
Coaches
. Parling G.
. Lam P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (17 - 12)
10', Searle B. (Missed Drop Goal),
17', Moro J. (Try),
18', Searle B. (Conversion Goal),
20', Liebenberg H. (Try),
21', Searle B. (Conversion Goal),
29', Harding F. (Try),
30', Worsley S. (Conversion Goal),
31', Ravouvou K. (Try),
32', Worsley S. (Missed Conversion),
38', Searle B. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (16 - 7)
44', Searle B. (Penalty Goal),
47', Worsley S. ↓, Moroni M. ↑,
47', Whiteley T. ↓, van Poortvliet J. ↑,
50', Bill ↓, Grondona S. ↑,
51', Smith N. ↓, van der Flier A. ↑,
51', Wand W. ↓, Perese I. ↑,
52', Harding F. (Try),
53', Williams J. (Conversion Goal),
53', Cracknell O. ↓, Palmer H. ↑,
57', Randall H. ↓, Marmion K. ↑,
58', Heyes J. ↓, Hurd W. ↑,
58', Luatua S. ↓, Taylor G. ↑,
65', Perese I. (Try),
66', Searle B. (Missed Conversion),
67', Kloska G. ↓, Chawatama L. ↑,
69', Heward N. ↓, Boshoff A. ↑,
71', Blamire J. ↓, Theobald-Thomas F. ↑,
77', Searle B. (Penalty Goal),
80+1', Hamer-Webb G. (Try),
80+2', Searle B. (Missed Conversion),
Preview
Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership Rugby (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leicester Tigers won 1.
Leicester Tigers has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Bristol is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Bristol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Leicester Tigers has had a series of home games.
In this match, Leicester Tigers is the team to beat.
We predict that Leicester Tigers will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Leicester Tigers won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 434:461. (average 25.5:27.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Leicester Tigers won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 269:209. (average 33.6:26.1).
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Smith N. 
Woolmore J. 
Liebenberg H. 
Moro J. 
Luatua S. 
Watson H. 
Bill 
Heward N. 
Chawatama L. 
Marmion K. 
O'Connor J. 
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