Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 16

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Cardiff Arms Park (Cardiff)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, S4C, URC


	Cardiff Rugby		Ospreys

	1	X	2
	1.8	19	2.1
	1.69	21	2.21
	1.77	20.12	2.17	Watch
	1.75	23	2.1
	1.73	21	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.48)	20.82 ↑ (20.26)	2.16 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
52.8%

Draw
4.4%

Ospreys
42.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.9%

4.6%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cardiff Rugby's form might have worsened.

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ospreys's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Rugby than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ospreys, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:23

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 7)
2nd Half (14 - 14)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Cardiff has had a series of away games.

Cardiff might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Cardiff will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 416:487. (average 20.8:24.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 189:222. (average 18.9:22.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Cardiff Rugby	3	2	0	1	66:71	9
13	Ospreys	3	1	0	2	81:107	6

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Cardiff Rugby: 0.81% Ospreys: 0.59%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
18.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	24:28 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
04.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Cardiff Rugby	38:35 ✺
United Rugby Championship
27.03.26	Sharks - Cardiff Rugby	21:15 ✺
20.03.26	Blue Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	40:7 ✺
27.02.26	Cardiff Rugby - Leinster	8:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLLLW
- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
18.04.26	Ospreys - Sharks	21:17 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
04.04.26	Ulster - Ospreys	28:24 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Connacht - Ospreys	21:14 ✺
21.03.26	Benetton Treviso - Ospreys	31:19 ✺
28.02.26	Ospreys - Ulster	21:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22
19.04.25	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	19:36
01.01.25	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	13:13
01.06.24	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	22:33
01.01.24	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	27:21
22.04.23	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	21:38
01.01.23	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	19:22

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