Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 12

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Location: Cardiff Arms Park (Cardiff)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, S4C Digital


	Cardiff Rugby		Leinster

	1	X	2
	2.88	21	1.44
	2.95	22	1.42
	2.99	20.93	1.44	Watch
	2.88	21	1.44
	3.04	21	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↓ (4.31)	21.19 ↓ (25.25)	1.43 ↑ (1.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 39.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
31.3%

Draw
4.4%

Leinster
64.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

3.7%

74.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cardiff Rugby's performance.

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leinster might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Cardiff Rugby - Leinster Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 9 - 90%). Leinster will win (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cardiff: 71.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +7.5 - Cardiff (1.66) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 15:26

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
2nd Half (5 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 1.

Recent performances by Cardiff have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leinster is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Leinster is the team to beat.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 306:537. (average 18:31.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 153:205. (average 19.1:25.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Cardiff Rugby	3	2	0	1	66:71	9
11	Leinster	3	1	0	2	75:58	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
31.01.26	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	21:14 ✺
24.01.26	Cardiff Rugby - Benetton Treviso	17:8 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
18.01.26	Exeter Chiefs - Cardiff Rugby	31:0 ✺
10.01.26	Cardiff Rugby - Racing Métro	32:13 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLWL
- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
31.01.26	Leinster - Edinburgh	28:20 ✺
24.01.26	Connacht - Leinster	23:34 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Leinster	13:22 ✺
10.01.26	Leinster - La Rochelle	25:24 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Leinster - Connacht	52:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
01.03.25	Leinster - Cardiff Rugby	42:24
02.03.24	Cardiff Rugby - Leinster	20:33
28.01.23	Leinster - Cardiff Rugby	38:14
29.01.22	Cardiff Rugby - Leinster	29:27
22.11.20	Leinster - Cardiff Rugby	40:5
31.08.18	Cardiff Rugby - Leinster	32:33
08.09.17	Leinster - Cardiff Rugby	37:9

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