Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	FloSports app
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Ulster		Ospreys

	1	X	2
	1.13	34	6
	1.09	30	7
	1.12	30.19	6.84	Watch
	1.11	26	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 (1.11)	30.05 ↑ (25.91)	6.59 ↓ (7.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
82.9%

Draw
3.1%

Ospreys
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

83.6%

3.6%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Ulster - Ospreys Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -14.5 - Ulster (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -6.5, 1st Half - Ulster (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulster (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:16

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bell A.	1. Thomas G.
2. Herring R.	2. Parry S.
3. O'Toole T.	3. Henry R.
4. Henderson I. (C)	4. Davies R.
5. Izuchukwu C.	5. Smith R.
6. McCann D.	6. Sutton H.
7. Timoney N.	7. Morgan J. (C)
8. Augustus J.	8. Morris M.
9. Doak N.	9. Morgan-Williams R.
10. Flannery J.	10. Edwards D.
11. Stockdale J.	11. Morgan L.
12. McCloskey S.	12. Williams K.
13. Hume J.	13. Watkin O.
14. Kok W.	14. Kasende D.
15. Mcilroy E.	15. Walsh J.
Substitutes
16. Stewart T.	16. Daniel E.
17. Crean S.	17. Thomas S.
18. Wilson S.	18. Botha T.
19. Irvine C.	19. Fender J.
20. Ward B.	20. Deaves-Small H.
21. McKee C.	21. Hardy K.
22. Murphy J.	22. Boshoff E.
23. Ward Z.	23. Hopkins I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 17)
4', Izuchukwu C. (Try),
5', Doak N. (Conversion Goal),
10', Morgan-Williams R. (Try),
11', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
20', Kasende D. (Try),
21', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
30', Edwards D. (Penalty Goal),
35', McCann D. (Try),
36', Doak N. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 7)
46', Stockdale J. (Try),
47', Doak N. (Conversion Goal),
56', Timoney N. (Try),
57', Doak N. (Conversion Goal),
57', Morgan J. 🟨,
69', (Penalty Try),
69', Murphy J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 2.

Ulster may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ulster is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 447:293. (average 22.4:14.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulster won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 257:103. (average 25.7:10.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Zebre - Ulster	12:28 ✺
20.03.26	Ulster - Connacht	19:26 ✺
13.03.26	Edinburgh - Ulster	19:40 ✺
28.02.26	Ospreys - Ulster	21:10 ✺
31.01.26	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	21:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWLW
- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Connacht - Ospreys	21:14 ✺
21.03.26	Benetton Treviso - Ospreys	31:19 ✺
28.02.26	Ospreys - Ulster	21:10 ✺
31.01.26	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	19:13 ✺
23.01.26	Ospreys - Lions	24:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
28.02.26	Ospreys - Ulster	21:10
18.10.24	Ulster - Ospreys	36:12
18.02.24	Ospreys - Ulster	19:17
08.10.22	Ulster - Ospreys	47:17
04.12.21	Ospreys - Ulster	19:13
26.02.21	Ulster - Ospreys	21:7
10.10.20	Ospreys - Ulster	12:24

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