Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 14

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Dexcom Stadium (Galway)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Connacht		Ospreys

	1	X	2
	1.22	26	4.33
	1.22	26	4.3
	1.25	25.25	4.31	Watch
	1.25	26	4
	1.23	23	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.27)	25.25 ↑ (22.88)	4.29 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
74.8%

Draw
3.7%

Ospreys
21.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

73.1%

4.1%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Ospreys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Connacht - Ospreys Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Connacht will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:20

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 7)
2nd Half (14 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 3.

Ospreys may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Connacht is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 474:503. (average 23.7:25.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Connacht won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 285:230. (average 28.5:23).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
13	Ospreys	3	1	0	2	81:107	6
14	Connacht	3	1	0	2	56:84	5

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Connacht: 1.22% Ospreys: 0.59%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
20.03.26	Ulster - Connacht	19:26 ✺
13.03.26	Connacht - Llanelli Scarlets	31:14 ✺
28.02.26	Connacht - Glasgow Warriors	15:10 ✺
31.01.26	Zebre - Connacht	15:31 ✺
24.01.26	Connacht - Leinster	23:34 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWWWL
- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
21.03.26	Benetton Treviso - Ospreys	31:19 ✺
28.02.26	Ospreys - Ulster	21:10 ✺
31.01.26	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	19:13 ✺
23.01.26	Ospreys - Lions	24:24 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Ospreys - Montpellier	26:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
07.12.25	Ospreys - Connacht	24:21
United Rugby Championship
22.03.25	Ospreys - Connacht	43:40
21.10.23	Connacht - Ospreys	34:26
29.10.22	Ospreys - Connacht	19:22
26.11.21	Connacht - Ospreys	46:18
Pro14 Rainbow Cup
04.06.21	Connacht - Ospreys	26:19
United Rugby Championship
24.01.21	Connacht - Ospreys	20:26

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