Match Info

Top 14 - Round 9

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Pierre-Fabre (Castres)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 2
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Castres		Bordeaux Bègles

	1	X	2
	1.36	21	3.25
	1.44	21	2.85
	1.56	21.02	2.67	Watch
	1.41	15	3.06
	1.33	23	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.56)	20.2 ↓ (21.02)	3.07 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castres
65.2%

Draw
4.6%

Bordeaux Bègles
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

4.5%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

4.5%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Bordeaux Bègles has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castres than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bordeaux Bègles than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Castres - Bordeaux Bègles Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -6.5 - Castres (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Castres (votes: 1 - 100%).

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Galisson L.	1. Perchaud M.
2. Durand T.	2. Lamothe M.
3. Collier W.	3. Sadie C.
4. Ducat G.	4. Palu B.
5. Staniforth T.	5. Gray J.
6. Babillot M.	6. Bochaton P.
7. Ardron T.	7. Woki C.
8. Tukino F.	8. Gazzotti M.
9. Arata S.	9. Page-Relo M.
10. Popelin P.	10. Carbery J.
11. Hulleu N.	11. Retiere A.
12. Goodhue J.	12. Janse van Rensburg R.
13. Botitu V.	13. Uberti P.
14. Karawalevu V.	14. Rayasi S.
15. Chabouni T.	15. Buros R.
Substitutes
16. Buruiana S.	16. Sa C.
17. Tichit A.	17. Poirot J.
18. Vanverberghe F.	18. Cazeaux C.
19. Nakarawa L.	19. Gardrat R.
20. Fernandez J.	20. Vergnes-Taillefer B.
21. Herve E.	21. Drault A.
22. Cocagi A.	22. Mousques X.
23. Corato N.	23. Tameifuna B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 13)
2', Carbery J. (Penalty Goal),
10', Carbery J. (Penalty Goal),
27', Galisson L. (Try),
28', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),
39', Buros R. (Try),
40', Carbery J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (19 - 15)
42', Popelin P. (Try),
46', Gazzotti M. (Try),
53', Arata S. (Try),
57', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),
61', Tameifuna B. (Try),
66', Sa C. (Try),
80+2', Hulleu N. (Try),
80+4', Fernandez J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castres won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Castres is the team to beat.

We predict that Castres will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Castres won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 431:432. (average 21.6:21.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Castres won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 249:217. (average 24.9:21.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
25.10.25	Clermont - Castres	63:14 ✺
18.10.25	Castres - Stade Français	29:24 ✺
11.10.25	Montauban - Castres	28:32 ✺
04.10.25	Castres - Racing Métro	20:16 ✺
27.09.25	Toulouse - Castres	59:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWWWL
- Union Bordeaux Bègles
French Top 14
25.10.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Aviron Bayonnais	41:12 ✺
18.10.25	Perpignan - Bordeaux Bègles	12:27 ✺
12.10.25	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	56:13 ✺
04.10.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Lyon	32:20 ✺
27.09.25	Stade Français - Bordeaux Bègles	28:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
17.05.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Castres	34:29
21.12.24	Castres - Bordeaux Bègles	3:13
24.02.24	Castres - Bordeaux Bègles	41:12
26.08.23	Bordeaux Bègles - Castres	25:23
28.01.23	Castres - Bordeaux Bègles	23:18
17.09.22	Bordeaux Bègles - Castres	33:12
29.01.22	Bordeaux Bègles - Castres	23:10

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