Match Info

Top 14 - Round 7

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Pierre-Fabre (Castres)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, CANAL+ Sport
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Castres		Stade Français

	1	X	2
	1.17	26	5
	1.15	30	5.4
	1.19	25.93	4.97	Watch
	1.2	35	4.57
	1.18	30	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.32)	29.39 ↑ (19.5)	4.99 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castres
78.4%

Draw
3.1%

Stade Français
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.4%

4.7%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.4%

4.5%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castres's performance.

Stade Français has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stade Français might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castres than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castres that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stade Français than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stade Français could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Castres - Stade Français Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Castres will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Castres (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -11.5 - Castres (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Castres (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Galisson L.	1. Iscaro J.
2. Durand T.	2. Tia E.
3. Collier W.	3. Alo-Emile P.
4. Ducat G.	4. Scelzo J. M.
5. Nakarawa L.	5. Azagoh P.
6. Babillot M.	6. Hirigoyen M.
7. Ardron T.	7. Briatte R.
8. Tukino F.	8. Petelo-Mapu I.
9. Arata S.	9. Motassi T.
10. Herve E.	10. Foursans-Bourdette L.
11. Vargas A.	11. Etien L.
12. Goodhue J.	12. Nene N.
13. Cocagi A.	13. Marchant J.
14. Hulleu N.	14. Ezeala S.
15. Chabouni T.	15. Jonas J.
Substitutes
16. Colonna P.	16. Peyresblanques L.
17. Tichit A.	17. Alo-Emile M.
18. Maravat G.	18. Halaifonua T.
19. Papalii A.	19. Chapuis R.
20. Fernandez J.	20. Timo A.
21. Botitu V.	21. Kerr-Barlow T.
22. Palis G.	22. Barre L.
23. Chilachava L.	23. Lux Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (22 - 7)
8', Chabouni T. (Try),
8', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
12', Herve E. (Penalty Goal),
17', Chabouni T. (Try),
17', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
22', Motassi T. (Try),
22', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Conversion Goal),
40', Ezeala S. 🟨,
40+3', Palis G. (Try),
2nd Half (7 - 17)
47', Ardron T. (Try),
47', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
49', Nene N. (Try),
50', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Conversion Goal),
71', Iscaro J. (Try),
71', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Conversion Goal),
80', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castres won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Castres is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Castres won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 406:446. (average 20.3:22.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Castres won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 274:142. (average 27.4:14.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
11.10.25	Montauban - Castres	28:32 ✺
04.10.25	Castres - Racing Métro	20:16 ✺
27.09.25	Toulouse - Castres	59:12 ✺
20.09.25	Castres - Aviron Bayonnais	48:17 ✺
13.09.25	Toulon - Castres	16:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWLWL
- Stade Français
French Top 14
11.10.25	Stade Français - La Rochelle	26:24 ✺
04.10.25	Perpignan - Stade Français	11:28 ✺
27.09.25	Stade Français - Bordeaux Bègles	28:7 ✺
20.09.25	Lyon - Stade Français	42:37 ✺
13.09.25	Section Paloise - Stade Français	34:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
07.06.25	Stade Français - Castres	21:10
19.10.24	Castres - Stade Français	35:13
01.06.24	Castres - Stade Français	27:18
04.11.23	Stade Français - Castres	39:16
07.01.23	Stade Français - Castres	26:7
10.09.22	Castres - Stade Français	30:20
08.01.22	Castres - Stade Français	15:9

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