Match Info

Top 14 - Round 7

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Pierre-Fabre (Castres) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
France	16:35	CANAL+ France
United Kingdom	15:35	FloSports app
International	14:35	TOP 14 Rugby TV


	Castres		Stade Français

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.6
	1.54	21	2.55
	1.55	20	2.65	Watch
	1.52	20	2.45
	1.55	17	2.6
	1.54	21	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.55)	20 (20)	2.57 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castres
59.7%

Draw
4.6%

Stade Français
35.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.2%

4.7%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

5.4%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castres has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Stade Français has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castres than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castres that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stade Français than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Castres - Stade Français Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Stade Français will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walcker Q.	1. Alo-Emile M.
2. Durand T.	2. Nicotera G.
3. Chilachava L.	3. Melikidze G.
4. Maravat G.	4. Gabrillagues P. (C)
5. Vanverberghe F.	5. Metz F.
6. Babillot M. (C)	6. Halaifonua T.
7. Watson H.	7. Chapuis R.
8. Ramototabua V.	8. Scelzo J. M.
9. Arata S.	9. Abadie P.
10. Le Brun L.	10. Carbonel L.
11. Baget R.	11. Ezeala S.
12. Cocagi A.	12. Vili T.
13. Goodhue J.	13. Ward J. C.
14. Ambadiang C.	14. Dakuwaqa P.
15. Chabouni T.	15. Barre L.
Substitutes
16. Colonna P.	16. Maka T.
17. Galisson L.	17. Abramishvili S.
18. Ducat G.	18. Mailulu P.
19. Gabriel F.	19. Huguet P.
20. Delaporte B.	20. Motassi T.
21. Fernandez J.	21. Duguivalu A.
22. Guilhot L.	22. Monin L.
23. Gurtskaia M.	23. Alo-Emile P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 5)
8', Carbonel L. (Try),
8', Carbonel L. (Missed Conversion),
16', Cocagi A. (Try),
16', Le Brun L. (Conversion Goal),
28', Le Brun L. (Penalty Goal),
37', Carbonel L. (Missed Penalty),
2nd Half (6 - 3)
53', Le Brun L. (Penalty Goal),
56', Carbonel L. (Penalty Goal),
60', Le Brun L. (Missed Penalty),
64', Mailulu P. 🟨,
65', Fernandez J. (Penalty Goal),
68', Carbonel L. (Missed Penalty),

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 13th in the Pro D2 (Relegation) and 6th in the Promotion - Top 14 Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castres won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Castres is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Castres in today's match, at odds of 1.54.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Castres has recorded 9 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 428:432 (averaging 21.4:21.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Castres against this opponent, the record stands at 9 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 303:166 goals (averaging 27.5:15.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
9	Stade Francais Paris	7	3	0	4	155:174	14
11	Castres Olympique	7	3	0	4	142:161	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castres Olympique
Challenge Cup Rugby
18.10.26	Castres - Benetton Treviso	18:9 ✺
French Top 14
10.10.26	Section Paloise - Castres	35:26 ✺
03.10.26	Castres - Toulouse	7:8 ✺
26.09.26	Clermont - Castres	20:6 ✺
19.09.26	Castres - Toulon	29:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLLW
- Stade Français
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.10.26	Blue Bulls - Stade Français	56:20 ✺
French Top 14
10.10.26	Stade Français - Montpellier	30:22 ✺
03.10.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	35:32 ✺
26.09.26	Stade Français - Lyon	31:10 ✺
20.09.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Stade Français	40:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
03.01.26	Stade Français - Castres	33:15
18.10.25	Castres - Stade Français	29:24
07.06.25	Stade Français - Castres	21:10
19.10.24	Castres - Stade Français	35:13
01.06.24	Castres - Stade Français	27:18
04.11.23	Stade Français - Castres	39:16
07.01.23	Stade Français - Castres	26:7

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