Match Info

Top 14 - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 5
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Montauban		Castres

	1	X	2
	2.38	21	1.62
	2.42	23	1.58
	2.5	18	1.59
	2.6	26	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.67)	22 ↑ (15)	1.58 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montauban
37.4%

Draw
4.2%

Castres
58.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

60%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

6.1%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montauban has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Castres has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montauban than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castres than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.1%	0%	5.9%

Montauban - Castres Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Montauban will win (votes: 15 - 93.8%). Castres will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montauban: 82% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Montauban will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:30

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bue T.	1. Galisson L.
2. Greyling R.	2. Durand T.
3. Sordoni L.	3. Collier W.
4. Uanivi T.	4. Maravat G.
5. Kanika N.	5. Staniforth T.
6. Quercy F.	6. Babillot M.
7. Fifita V.	7. Ardron T.
8. Viiga T.	8. Papalii A.
9. Powell J.	9. Arata S.
10. Bosviel J.	10. Herve E.
11. Tuculet S.	11. Hulleu N.
12. Renda S.	12. Goodhue J.
13. Jackson J.	13. Cocagi A.
14. Vici J.	14. Ambadiang C.
15. Mouchous B.	15. Chabouni T.
Substitutes
16. Maurouard J.	16. Colonna P.
17. Seyrolle L.	17. Tichit A.
18. Maafu N.	18. Vanverberghe F.
19. Wilkins K.	19. Cope B.
20. Ringuet K.	20. Fernandez J.
21. Zabalza H.	21. Guilhot L.
22. Espeut M.	22. Seguret A.
23. Simutoga V.	23. Corato N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 26)
5', Hulleu N. (Try),
5', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
7', Staniforth T. 🟥,
14', Hulleu N. (Try),
24', Durand T. (Try),
24', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
32', Chabouni T. (Try),
33', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
36', Papalii A. 🟨,
39', Tuculet S. (Try),
39', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (21 - 6)
51', Viiga T. 🟥,
62', Maurouard J. (Try),
62', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),
66', Herve E. (Penalty Goal),
70', Mouchous B. (Try),
71', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),
74', Herve E. (Penalty Goal),
77', Seyrolle L. (Try),
77', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 in the zone Top 14 (Relegation) and 10).

Montauban is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Castres has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Castres is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Montauban
French Top 14
04.10.25	Clermont - Montauban	84:31 ✺
27.09.25	Montauban - Montpellier	22:22 ✺
20.09.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Montauban	71:24 ✺
13.09.25	Montauban - Lyon	18:25 ✺
06.09.25	Stade Français - Montauban	42:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTLLL
- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
04.10.25	Castres - Racing Métro	20:16 ✺
27.09.25	Toulouse - Castres	59:12 ✺
20.09.25	Castres - Aviron Bayonnais	48:17 ✺
13.09.25	Toulon - Castres	16:12 ✺
06.09.25	Castres - Section Paloise	15:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLWLL

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