Match Info

Top 14 - Round 16

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Pierre-Fabre (Castres)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 4
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Castres		Clermont

	1	X	2
	1.25	26	4
	1.21	25	4.5
	1.23	23.77	4.8	Watch
	1.2	26	4.5
	1.25	27	4.16
	1.23	31	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.28)	26.46 ↑ (20.97)	4.39 ↑ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 42.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Castres
75.4%

Draw
3.5%

Clermont
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.4%

4.4%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Clermont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Castres - Clermont Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Castres will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:16

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walcker Q.	1. Akhaladze G.
2. Zarantonello L.	2. Massa B.
3. Azar A.	3. Ojovan C.
4. Ducat G.	4. Simmons R.
5. Vanverberghe F.	5. Ceyte T.
6. Delaporte B. (C)	6. Ratuva T.
7. Cope B.	7. Tixeront K. (C)
8. Papalii A.	8. Tolofua S.
9. Arata S.	9. Zamora L.
10. Popelin P.	10. Plummer H.
11. Palis G.	11. Jurand J.
12. Goodhue J.	12. Simone I.
13. Karawalevu V.	13. Loaloa A.
14. Ambadiang C.	14. Delguy B.
15. Chabouni T.	15. Newsome A.
Substitutes
16. Durand T.	16. Fourcade E.
17. Galisson L.	17. Lotrian S.
18. Staniforth T.	18. Muarua P.
19. Maravat G.	19. Hemery A.
20. Babillot M.	20. Hamdaoui K.
21. Fernandez J.	21. Moala G.
22. Botitu V.	22. Dessaigne L.
23. Corato N.	23. Dzmanashvili G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (11 - 10)
9', Popelin P. (Penalty Goal),
17', Plummer H. (Penalty Goal),
19', Chabouni T. (Try),
27', Popelin P. (Penalty Goal),
40+2', Delguy B. (Try),
40+3', Plummer H. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (17 - 13)
48', Plummer H. (Penalty Goal),
51', Fernandez J. (Try),
51', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),
60', Fernandez J. (Penalty Goal),
70', Plummer H. (Penalty Goal),
79', Goodhue J. (Try),
80', Fernandez J. (Conversion Goal),
80+4', Dzmanashvili G. (Try),
80+5', Plummer H. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castres won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Castres is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Castres won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 416:651. (average 20.8:32.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Castres won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 202:197. (average 22.4:21.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
8	Clermont	5	2	0	3	118:146	10
12	Castres Olympique	5	2	0	3	100:118	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
24.01.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Castres	10:13 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Munster - Castres	29:31 ✺
09.01.26	Castres - Bath	20:43 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Stade Français - Castres	33:15 ✺
27.12.25	Castres - Lyon	36:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 34.7 WWLLW
- ASM Clermont Auvergne
French Top 14
25.01.26	Clermont - La Rochelle	32:27 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Sharks - Clermont	50:12 ✺
10.01.26	Clermont - Glasgow Warriors	21:33 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Montauban - Clermont	19:34 ✺
27.12.25	Clermont - Bordeaux Bègles	34:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
25.10.25	Clermont - Castres	63:14
24.05.25	Castres - Clermont	34:29
30.11.24	Clermont - Castres	54:10
18.05.24	Clermont - Castres	29:20
27.01.24	Castres - Clermont	20:23
04.02.23	Clermont - Castres	41:26
29.10.22	Castres - Clermont	26:22

Upcoming Matches