Match Info

Top 14 - Round 15

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean-Dauger (Bayonne)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 2, Canal+ Live 3
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Aviron Bayonnais		Castres

	1	X	2
	1.25	34	4
	1.24	24	4.2
	1.28	25.47	4.11	Watch
	1.29	23	3.75
	1.32	29	3.46
	1.3	29	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↑ (1.21)	27.41 ↑ (24.2)	3.82 ↓ (5.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
72.4%

Draw
3.4%

Castres
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

77.6%

3.9%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aviron Bayonnais's form might have worsened.

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castres's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Aviron Bayonnais - Castres Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Bayonne will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Calles I.	1. Walcker Q.
2. Martin L.	2. Zarantonello L.
3. Tagi L.	3. Azar A.
4. Johnson E.	4. Vanverberghe F.
5. Paulos L.	5. Staniforth T.
6. Fischer A.	6. Delaporte B. (C)
7. Iturria A. (C)	7. Cope B.
8. Bruni R.	8. Ardron T.
9. Tilloles B.	9. Arata S.
10. Segonds J.	10. Herve E.
11. Carreras M.	11. Baget R.
12. Martocq G.	12. Botitu V.
13. Maqala S.	13. Karawalevu V.
14. Orabe Y.	14. Vargas A.
15. Tiberghien C.	15. Palis G.
Substitutes
16. Bosch F.	16. Durand T.
17. Setiano E.	17. Galisson L.
18. Moon A.	18. Maravat G.
19. Heguy B.	19. Papalii A.
20. Germain B.	20. Fernandez J.
21. Anscombe G.	21. Popelin P.
22. Erbinartegaray A.	22. Goodhue J.
23. Tatafu T.	23. Corato N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 10)
4', Vargas A. (Try),
5', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
12', Martin L. (Try),
13', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
31', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
35', Herve E. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
68', Fernandez J. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 1.

Bayonne is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Castres has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Castres may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayonne is considered a favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 12 matches, and goals 361:522. (average 19:27.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayonne won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 219:149. (average 24.3:16.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Aviron Bayonnais	5	4	0	1	156:169	17
12	Castres Olympique	5	2	0	3	100:118	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Leinster	13:22 ✺
10.01.26	Leicester Tigers - Aviron Bayonnais	57:14 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	62:22 ✺
27.12.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	35:34 ✺
20.12.25	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	49:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL
- Castres Olympique
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Munster - Castres	29:31 ✺
09.01.26	Castres - Bath	20:43 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Stade Français - Castres	33:15 ✺
27.12.25	Castres - Lyon	36:22 ✺
20.12.25	Montpellier - Castres	33:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
20.09.25	Castres - Aviron Bayonnais	48:17
31.05.25	Castres - Aviron Bayonnais	33:3
28.12.24	Aviron Bayonnais - Castres	33:12
08.06.24	Aviron Bayonnais - Castres	17:28
02.09.23	Castres - Aviron Bayonnais	37:0
25.02.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Castres	41:10
15.10.22	Castres - Aviron Bayonnais	39:22

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