Match Info

Top 14 - Round 13

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Pierre-Fabre (Castres)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Castres		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.22	26	4.33
	1.25	28	3.95
	1.25	25.9	4.4	Watch
	1.25	26	4
	1.23	23	4.25
	1.23	31	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.28)	26.65 ↑ (21.49)	4.24 ↑ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castres
74.7%

Draw
3.5%

Lyon
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.3%

4.3%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Castres - Lyon Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walcker Q.	1. Rey J.
2. Durand T.	2. Chat C.
3. Azar A.	3. Aptsiauri I.
4. Ducat G.	4. Lambey F. (C)
5. Staniforth T.	5. Botha A.
6. Delaporte B. (C)	6. Cretin D.
7. Cope B.	7. Okuya M.
8. Ardron T.	8. Shvangiradze B.
9. Fernandez J.	9. Cassang C.
10. Popelin P.	10. Berdeu L.
11. Baget R.	11. Ioane M.
12. Goodhue J.	12. Millet T.
13. Botitu V.	13. Masi I.
14. Ambadiang C.	14. Wainiqolo J.
15. Chabouni T.	15. Meliande M.
Substitutes
16. Zarantonello L.	16. Marchand G.
17. Galisson L.	17. Moukoro T.
18. Vanverberghe F.	18. Guillard M.
19. Ramototabua V.	19. William T.
20. Doubrere G.	20. Gonzalez E.
21. Guilhot L.	21. Jackson D. P.
22. Karawalevu V.	22. Gouzou M.
23. Collier W.	23. Gomes Sa C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 15)
6', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
17', Botitu V. (Try),
17', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),
29', Popelin P. (Penalty Goal),
32', Wainiqolo J. (Try),
32', Berdeu L. (Conversion Goal),
38', Wainiqolo J. (Try),
2nd Half (26 - 7)
51', Azar A. (Try),
63', Zarantonello L. (Try),
63', Fernandez J. (Conversion Goal),
66', Ambadiang C. (Try),
66', Fernandez J. (Conversion Goal),
71', Wainiqolo J. 🟨,
75', Karawalevu V. (Try),
76', Guilhot L. (Conversion Goal),
78', Gonzalez E. (Try),
78', Jackson D. P. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castres won 3.

Castres has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lyon has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Castres is the team to beat.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Castres won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 453:431. (average 23.8:22.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Castres won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 262:194. (average 26.2:19.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
20.12.25	Montpellier - Castres	33:31 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Castres - Edinburgh	33:0 ✺
07.12.25	Gloucester - Castres	34:14 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Castres - Perpignan	23:7 ✺
22.11.25	La Rochelle - Castres	17:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWLWW
- Lyon OU
French Top 14
20.12.25	Lyon - Toulouse	19:41 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Lyon	23:21 ✺
06.12.25	Lyon - Newcastle Red Bulls	14:23 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Lyon	22:20 ✺
22.11.25	Lyon - Clermont	43:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
22.02.25	Castres - Lyon	30:25
28.09.24	Lyon - Castres	40:38
09.03.24	Lyon - Castres	34:19
02.12.23	Castres - Lyon	29:14
04.03.23	Castres - Lyon	27:22
05.11.22	Lyon - Castres	26:20
19.02.22	Castres - Lyon	19:17

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