What is the expert prediction for Perpignan vs Castres?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Perpignan vs Castres. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Perpignan vs Castres Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, May 30, 2026)

Match Info

Top 14 - Round 25

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Aimé Giral (Perpignan)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ Sport
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Perpignan		Castres

	1	X	2
	1.3	26	3.6
	1.3	23	3.6
	1.33	23.27	3.67	Watch
	1.26	18	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.45)	22.57 ↑ (18)	3.68 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perpignan
70.9%

Draw
4.1%

Castres
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

5.1%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

5.3%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perpignan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Perpignan's performance.

Castres has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castres might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perpignan than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Perpignan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castres than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castres could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Perpignan will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tetrashvili G.	1. Galisson L.
2. Ruiz I.	2. Durand T.
3. Brookes K.	3. Collier W.
4. Gray J.	4. Maravat G.
5. Tanguy M.	5. Vanverberghe F.
6. Hicks M.	6. Babillot M. (C)
7. Le Corvec M.	7. Cope B.
8. Oviedo J.	8. Ramototabua V.
9. Hall J.	9. Doubrere G.
10. Urdapilleta B.	10. Popelin P.
11. Forner T.	11. Baget R.
12. De La Fuente J. (C)	12. Cocagi A.
13. Duguivalu A.	13. Botitu V.
14. Veredamu T.	14. Ambadiang C.
15. Allan T.	15. Chabouni T.
Substitutes
16. Malolo S.	16. Colonna P.
17. Devaux B.	17. Sokobale A.
18. Tuilagi P.	18. Staniforth T.
19. Van Tonder J.	19. Ducat G.
20. Ecochard T.	20. Delaporte B.
21. Joseph J.	21. Dupuy C.
22. Petaia J.	22. Le Brun L.
23. Ceccarelli P.	23. Corato N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 17)
6', Ramototabua V. (Try),
11', Allan T. (Try),
11', Urdapilleta B. (Conversion Goal),
24', Urdapilleta B. (Penalty Goal),
31', Durand T. (Try),
32', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),
37', Botitu V. (Try),
2nd Half (19 - 10)
51', Tuilagi P. (Try),
52', Urdapilleta B. (Conversion Goal),
55', Hicks M. (Try),
55', Durand T. 🟨,
59', Le Brun L. (Penalty Goal),
65', Staniforth T. (Try),
66', Le Brun L. (Conversion Goal),
80', Duguivalu A. (Try),
80+1', Urdapilleta B. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 in the zone Top 14 (Relegation) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Perpignan won 2.

Recent form of Perpignan has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Castres has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Perpignan has had a series of away games.

In this match, Perpignan is the team to beat.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Perpignan won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 284:350. (average 18.9:23.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Perpignan won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 154:122. (average 22:17.4).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USA Perpignan
French Top 14
16.05.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Perpignan	37:32 ✺
09.05.26	Clermont - Perpignan	45:14 ✺
25.04.26	Perpignan - La Rochelle	29:31 ✺
18.04.26	Montpellier - Perpignan	42:31 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
04.04.26	Montpellier - Perpignan	0:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 LLLLW
- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
16.05.26	Castres - Montpellier	33:36 ✺
09.05.26	Section Paloise - Castres	27:15 ✺
25.04.26	Lyon - Castres	26:21 ✺
18.04.26	Castres - Toulouse	25:42 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
03.04.26	Northampton Saints - Castres	49:41 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
29.11.25	Castres - Perpignan	23:7
15.02.25	Perpignan - Castres	20:20
21.09.24	Castres - Perpignan	27:12
30.03.24	Perpignan - Castres	43:12
31.12.23	Castres - Perpignan	13:17
28.05.23	Castres - Perpignan	26:16
01.10.22	Perpignan - Castres	14:10

Perpignan - Castres: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide