Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Dexcom Stadium (Galway)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports 3, France 4
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Connacht		Racing Métro

	1	X	2
	1.41	21	2.82
	1.3	26	3.2
	1.49	24	2.8
	1.38	28	3.15
	1.36	21	3.2
	1.45	19	2.84
	1.49	24	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.38)	23.29 ↑ (21.25)	2.97 ↓ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
65.1%

Draw
3.9%

Racing Métro
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.1%

4.4%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.5%

4.6%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Racing Métro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Connacht than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Métro than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Connacht - Racing Métro Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Connacht will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Racing Métro will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Racing Métro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Buckley D.	1. Ben Arous E.
2. Heffernan D.	2. Escobar D.
3. Bealham F.	3. Bamba D.
4. Murphy J.	4. Palu B.
5. Joyce J.	5. Rowlands W.
6. Prendergast C. (C)	6. Baudonne M.
7. Hurley-Langton S.	7. Kpoku J.
8. Jansen S.	8. Joseph J.
9. Murphy B.	9. Le Garrec N.
10. Hanrahan J.	10. Lancaster D.
11. Treacy F.	11. Spring M. (C)
12. Aki B.	12. Tuisova J.
13. Gavin H.	13. Habosi V.
14. Jennings S.	14. Naituvi W.
15. Hansen M.	15. James S.
Substitutes
16. Tierney-Martin D.	16. Couly R.
17. Dooley P.	17. Gogichashvili G.
18. Aungier J.	18. Leota L.
19. Dowling O.	19. Taofifenua R.
20. Boyle P.	20. Manyarara S.
21. Devine M.	21. Taofifenua D.
22. Ioane J.	22. Farrell O.
23. Forde C.	23. Chavancy H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (28 - 24)
2', Aki B. (Try),
3', Hanrahan J. (Conversion Goal),
5', Naituvi W. (Try),
8', Prendergast C. (Try),
9', Hanrahan J. (Conversion Goal),
12', (Penalty Try),
18', Escobar D. (Try),
25', Le Garrec N. (Try),
25', Lancaster D. (Conversion Goal),
30', Prendergast C. (Try),
31', Hanrahan J. (Conversion Goal),
33', Tuisova J. (Try),
34', Lancaster D. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 19)
42', Lancaster D. (Penalty Goal),
49', Le Garrec N. (Try),
50', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
56', Le Garrec N. (Penalty Goal),
58', (Penalty Goal),
64', Le Garrec N. (Penalty Goal),
72', Murphy B. (Try),
78', Forde C. (Try),
79', Hanrahan J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Recent matches Connacht is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Racing Métro is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Connacht have a series of home games.

In this match Connacht is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Connacht to win the game is with odds 1.41.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Connacht won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 22:26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
05.04.25	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	35:20 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Connacht - Munster	24:30 ✺
22.03.25	Ospreys - Connacht	43:40 ✺
01.03.25	Connacht - Benetton Treviso	38:30 ✺
15.02.25	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	24:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLWW
- Racing Métro 92
Challenge Cup Rugby
05.04.25	Perpignan - Racing Métro	18:24 ✺
French Top 14
30.03.25	Racing Métro - Bordeaux Bègles	36:31 ✺
22.03.25	Clermont - Racing Métro	21:23 ✺
01.03.25	Racing Métro - Section Paloise	29:47 ✺
22.02.25	La Rochelle - Racing Métro	21:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.20	Racing Métro - Connacht	26:22

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