Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 17

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Dexcom Stadium (Galway)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Connacht		Munster

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.6
	1.53	22	2.55
	1.56	20.07	2.59	Watch
	1.5	23	2.6
	1.55	19	2.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (2.28)	21.01 ↓ (21.36)	2.59 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
60.1%

Draw
4.4%

Munster
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

4.3%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

4.8%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Connacht's performance.

Munster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Munster might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Connacht than the current prediction. (-23.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Connacht that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Munster than the current prediction. (+25.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Munster could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Connacht - Munster Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Connacht will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:23

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 0)
2nd Half (7 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Munster has had a series of away games.

Connacht could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Connacht will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 342:504. (average 17.1:25.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Connacht won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 153:156. (average 17:17.3).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Munster: 5.67% Connacht: 1.52%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
9	Munster	2	1	0	1	46:48	6
10	Connacht	2	1	0	1	37:48	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Lions - Connacht	33:21 ✺
18.04.26	Stormers - Connacht	24:33 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.04.26	Montpellier - Connacht	45:22 ✺
03.04.26	Connacht - Sharks	29:12 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Connacht - Ospreys	21:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.4 LWLWW
- Munster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Munster - Ulster	41:14 ✺
18.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Munster	15:45 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
04.04.26	Exeter Chiefs - Munster	31:21 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Blue Bulls - Munster	34:31 ✺
21.03.26	Sharks - Munster	45:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
25.10.25	Munster - Connacht	17:15
29.03.25	Connacht - Munster	24:30
21.09.24	Munster - Connacht	35:33
11.05.24	Munster - Connacht	47:12
01.01.24	Connacht - Munster	22:9
26.11.22	Munster - Connacht	24:17
07.10.22	Connacht - Munster	20:11

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