Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 10

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Dexcom Stadium (Galway)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Connacht		Leinster

	1	X	2
	3.2	23	1.36
	3.5	22	1.32
	3.43	20.47	1.36	Watch
	3.4	21	1.33
	3.29	19.2	1.38
	3.33	19	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↓ (3.41)	20.78 ↓ (22.41)	1.35 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 43.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
27.4%

Draw
4.4%

Leinster
68.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

4.2%

68.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

4.4%

64.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Connacht than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leinster than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Connacht - Leinster Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Leinster will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leinster (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 18:27

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (13 - 13)
2nd Half (10 - 21)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 0.

Recent form of Connacht has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leinster is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Leinster is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 18 matches, and goals 345:678. (average 17.3:33.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Connacht won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 169:297. (average 16.9:29.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
11	Leinster	3	1	0	2	75:58	7
14	Connacht	3	1	0	2	56:84	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Connacht - Montauban	75:14 ✺
11.01.26	Montpellier - Connacht	33:31 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Leinster - Connacht	52:17 ✺
27.12.25	Connacht - Ulster	24:29 ✺
20.12.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Connacht	48:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 WLLLL
- Leinster Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Leinster	13:22 ✺
10.01.26	Leinster - La Rochelle	25:24 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Leinster - Connacht	52:17 ✺
27.12.25	Munster - Leinster	8:13 ✺
19.12.25	Leinster - Ulster	24:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Leinster - Connacht	52:17
21.12.24	Leinster - Connacht	20:12
19.10.24	Connacht - Leinster	12:33
31.05.24	Leinster - Connacht	33:7
02.12.23	Connacht - Leinster	22:24
01.01.23	Leinster - Connacht	41:12
14.10.22	Connacht - Leinster	0:10

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