Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Dexcom Stadium (Galway)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Connacht		Cardiff Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.33	23	3.4
	1.28	34	4
	1.3	24	3.9
	1.33	30	3.4
	1.3	26	3.5
	1.26	20	4.04
	1.3	24	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.32)	25.86 ↑ (22)	3.73 ↑ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
71.5%

Draw
3.6%

Cardiff Rugby
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.5%

4.2%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Connacht - Cardiff Rugby Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Connacht will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duggan J.	1. Southworth D.
2. Heffernan D. (C)	2. Belcher L. (C)
3. Bealham F.	3. Assiratti K.
4. Dowling O.	4. McNally J.
5. Murray D.	5. Williams T.
6. Murphy J.	6. Lawrence A.
7. Hurley-Langton S.	7. Botham J.
8. Jansen S.	8. Faletau T.
9. Devine M.	9. Mulder J.
10. Hanrahan J.	10. Sheedy C.
11. Treacy F.	11. Millard H.
12. Aki B.	12. Thomas B.
13. Gavin H.	13. Lee-Lo R.
14. Bolton S.	14. Adams J.
15. Hansen M.	15. Winnett C.
Substitutes
16. Tierney-Martin D.	16. Lloyd E.
17. Buckley D.	17. Domachowski C.
18. Aungier J.	18. Litterick R.
19. Murray N.	19. Thornton R.
20. Boyle P.	20. Mann A.
21. Blade C.	21. Young T.
22. Ioane J.	22. Bevan E.
23. Forde C.	23. Jennings R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 8)
3', Devine M. (Try),
4', Hanrahan J. (Conversion Goal),
13', Sheedy C. (Penalty Goal),
33', Hansen M. 🟨,
38', Lee-Lo R. (Try),
40+3', McNally J. 🟨,
40+5', Jansen S. (Try),
40+6', Hanrahan J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (21 - 12)
42', Treacy F. (Try),
43', Hanrahan J. (Conversion Goal),
53', Thomas B. (Try),
55', Thomas B. (Conversion Goal),
61', Adams J. (Try),
67', Bolton S. (Try),
67', Ioane J. (Conversion Goal),
77', Boyle P. (Try),
78', Ioane J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Connacht won 4.

Cardiff could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Connacht is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Connacht won 10 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 431:387 (average 21.6:19.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Connacht won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 260:178 (average 26:17.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Connacht - Munster	24:30 ✺
22.03.25	Ospreys - Connacht	43:40 ✺
01.03.25	Connacht - Benetton Treviso	38:30 ✺
15.02.25	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	24:19 ✺
26.01.25	Glasgow Warriors - Connacht	22:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLWWL
- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Benetton Treviso - Cardiff Rugby	20:19 ✺
21.03.25	Cardiff Rugby - Lions	20:17 ✺
01.03.25	Leinster - Cardiff Rugby	42:24 ✺
15.02.25	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	24:19 ✺
25.01.25	Cardiff Rugby - Sharks	22:42 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
15.02.25	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	24:19
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.25	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	19:28
United Rugby Championship
17.02.24	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	12:16
15.04.23	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	38:19
24.09.21	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	33:21
20.02.21	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	32:17
10.10.20	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	29:7

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