Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 11

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Scotstoun Stadium (Glasgow)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Glasgow Warriors		Munster

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.6
	1.73	26	2
	1.48	21	2.75
	1.53	20.06	2.69	Watch
	1.5	23	2.63
	1.53	19.3	2.67
	1.52	19	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.87)	21.34 ↑ (16.24)	2.58 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 42.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Glasgow Warriors
59.8%

Draw
4.3%

Munster
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

5.7%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

5.7%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Glasgow Warriors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Glasgow Warriors's performance.

Munster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Munster might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Glasgow Warriors than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Glasgow Warriors that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Munster than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Munster could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Glasgow Warriors - Munster Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:19

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (28 - 5)
2nd Half (3 - 17)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Glasgow Warriors won 3.

Glasgow Warriors has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Munster is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Glasgow Warriors might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Glasgow Warriors will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Glasgow Warriors won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 400:397. (average 20:19.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Glasgow Warriors won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 196:169. (average 19.6:16.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Glasgow Warriors	3	2	1	0	95:72	13
9	Munster	3	1	1	1	72:74	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Glasgow Warriors
United Rugby Championship
24.01.26	Zebre - Glasgow Warriors	21:26 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
18.01.26	Glasgow Warriors - Saracens	28:3 ✺
10.01.26	Clermont - Glasgow Warriors	21:33 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Glasgow Warriors - Zebre	47:10 ✺
27.12.25	Edinburgh - Glasgow Warriors	3:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWWW
- Munster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
23.01.26	Munster - Newport Gwent Dragons	22:20 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Munster - Castres	29:31 ✺
11.01.26	Toulon - Munster	27:25 ✺
United Rugby Championship
02.01.26	Ulster - Munster	28:3 ✺
27.12.25	Munster - Leinster	8:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
21.03.25	Glasgow Warriors - Munster	28:25
15.06.24	Munster - Glasgow Warriors	10:17
01.12.23	Munster - Glasgow Warriors	40:29
06.05.23	Glasgow Warriors - Munster	5:14
25.03.23	Munster - Glasgow Warriors	26:38
11.02.22	Glasgow Warriors - Munster	13:11
23.11.20	Glasgow Warriors - Munster	13:27

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