Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 10

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Thomond Park (Limerick)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Munster		Newport Gwent Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.14	34	5.5
	1.09	19	8.2
	1.11	24.02	7.33	Watch
	1.1	29	7
	1.14	21	6.56
	1.13	21	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.12 ↑ (1.03)	24.67 ↓ (38.93)	6.88 ↓ (13.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Munster
82.8%

Draw
3.8%

Newport Gwent Dragons
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

90.5%

2.4%

7.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Munster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Munster's form might have worsened.

Newport Gwent Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newport Gwent Dragons's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Munster - Newport Gwent Dragons Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Munster will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:15

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 13)
2nd Half (15 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Munster won 4.

Recent form of Munster has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Dragons has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Munster is the clear favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Munster won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 538:249. (average 31.6:14.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Munster won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 341:90. (average 42.6:11.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
8	Dragons	3	1	1	1	88:83	9
9	Munster	3	1	1	1	72:74	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Munster Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Munster - Castres	29:31 ✺
11.01.26	Toulon - Munster	27:25 ✺
United Rugby Championship
02.01.26	Ulster - Munster	28:3 ✺
27.12.25	Munster - Leinster	8:13 ✺
20.12.25	Ospreys - Munster	10:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLLW
- Newport Gwent Dragons
Challenge Cup Rugby
16.01.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Newcastle Red Bulls	35:12 ✺
10.01.26	Benetton Treviso - Newport Gwent Dragons	74:21 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	28:5 ✺
26.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	22:19 ✺
20.12.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Connacht	48:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
25.01.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Munster	19:38
04.11.23	Munster - Newport Gwent Dragons	45:14
25.09.22	Newport Gwent Dragons - Munster	23:17
05.03.22	Munster - Newport Gwent Dragons	64:3
01.11.20	Newport Gwent Dragons - Munster	16:28
28.09.19	Munster - Newport Gwent Dragons	39:9
26.01.19	Newport Gwent Dragons - Munster	7:8

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