Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 9

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Forsyth Barr Stadium (Dunedin)

Referee: Berry N. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	Sky Sport 2
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Disney+
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Sky Go
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Highlanders		Fijian Drua

	1	X	2
	1.29	26	3.75
	1.3	26	3.5
	1.28	30	3.9
	1.3	30	3.6
	1.29	26	3.6
	1.28	27	3.86	Watch
	1.28	30	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.41)	27.86 ↓ (30)	3.73 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Highlanders
71.9%

Draw
3.3%

Fijian Drua
24.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66%

3.1%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

3.5%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Highlanders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Highlanders's performance.

Fijian Drua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fijian Drua might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Highlanders than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Highlanders that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fijian Drua than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fijian Drua could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Highlanders - Fijian Drua Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 36:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. de Groot E.	1. Hetet H.
2. Bell H.	2. Dolokoto M.
3. Kautai S.	3. Doge M.
4. Stodart W.	4. Vocevoce M.
5. Holland F.	5. Nasilasila I.
6. Haig O.	6. Tamani J.
7. Lasaqa V.	7. Tuwai I.
8. Renton H.	8. Canakaivata E.
9. Fakatava F.	9. Kuruvoli S.
10. Millar C.	10. Armstrong-Ravula I.
11. Nareki J.	11. Loganimasi P.
12. Tavatavanawai T.	12. Tabuavou I.
13. Umaga-Jensen T.	13. Masi I.
14. Filimone T.	14. Ravutaumada S.
15. Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens J.	15. Muntz C.
Substitutes
16. Taylor J.	16. Togiatama Z.
17. Lienert-Brown D.	17. Ravai P.
18. Ma'u S.	18. Tawake S.
19. Cribb T.	19. Rotuisolia R. L.
20. Broughton N.	20. Miramira V.
21. Lennox A.	21. Baselala P.
22. Gilbert S.	22. Rabitu I.
23. Tele'a T.	23. Samusamuvodre T.
Coaches
. Joseph J.	. Jackson G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 3)
2', Filimone T. (Try),
3', Millar C. (Missed Conversion),
13', Filimone T. (Try),
14', Millar C. (Conversion Goal),
38', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Penalty Goal),
40', Umaga-Jensen T. (Try),
40', Millar C. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (26 - 17)
41', Rabitu I. (Try),
42', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Missed Conversion),
45', Lasaqa V. (Try),
46', Millar C. (Conversion Goal),
47', Kuruvoli S. (Try),
48', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Conversion Goal),
52', Loganimasi P. (Try),
53', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Missed Conversion),
59', Kuruvoli S. 🟨,
60', Taylor J. (Try),
62', Millar C. (Missed Conversion),
75', Tele'a T. (Try),
76', Millar C. (Conversion Goal),
80', Gilbert S. (Try),
80', Millar C. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 9 and 11).

The competitors look crappy now.

In this match Highlanders is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Highlanders won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 123:51 (average 41:17).

Including matches at home between the teams Highlanders won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 96:27 (average 48:13.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Highlanders Rugby
Super Rugby
05.04.25	Western Force - Highlanders	29:20 ✺
28.03.25	Brumbies - Highlanders	34:27 ✺
21.03.25	Highlanders - Reds	23:29 ✺
14.03.25	Highlanders - Hurricanes	18:20 ✺
28.02.25	Moana Pasifika - Highlanders	29:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW
- Fijian Drua
Super Rugby
04.04.25	Fijian Drua - Crusaders	14:31 ✺
23.03.25	Western Force - Fijian Drua	52:15 ✺
14.03.25	Brumbies - Fijian Drua	38:21 ✺
07.03.25	Fijian Drua - Chiefs	28:24 ✺
28.02.25	Waratahs - Fijian Drua	29:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
25.05.24	Highlanders - Fijian Drua	39:3
24.03.23	Highlanders - Fijian Drua	57:24
30.04.22	Fijian Drua - Highlanders	24:27

Highlanders - Fijian Drua: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide