Match Info
Pacific Nations Cup - Semi-finalsDate: 12 September 2026, SaturdayLocation: Hanazono Rugby Stadium (Higashiosaka)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Africa | SuperSport Rugby |
 Australia | Stan Sport |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 1, Oneplay |
 Japan | J sports 4 |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport Select |
 Nigeria | SuperSport Rugby |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 1 |
 South-africa | SuperSport Rugby |
 World | RugbyPass TV |
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Japan |
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USA |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.03 |
50 |
11 |
|
 |
1.04 |
60 |
9.75 |
|
 |
1.04 |
51 |
10 |
 Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.04 ↑
(1.02) |
53.67 ↑
(50) |
10.25 ↓
(12.5) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 62.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-24)
- The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Japan
89.2% | Draw
1.7% | USA
9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Japan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)USA has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)Japan - USA Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 43:19 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (35 - 14)
- 2', Hirose Y. (Try),
- 3', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
- 5', Stolberg M. (Try),
- 5', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
- 9', Riley D. (Try),
- 9', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
- 16', Harada M. (Try),
- 17', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
- 24', Klein S. (Try),
- 25', Hilsenbeck C. (Conversion Goal),
- 34', Lopeti T. (Try),
- 35', Hilsenbeck C. (Conversion Goal),
- 40+1', Otsuka S. (Try),
- 40+2', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (28 - 0)
- 42', Riley D. (Try),
- 43', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
- 54', Cornelsen J. (Try),
- 55', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
- 61', Haangana E. (Try),
- 61', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
- 64', Greene S. (Try),
- 65', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Japan won 4.Japan has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).USA may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Japan is the clear favorite.In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Japan won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 205:135. (average 34.2:22.5).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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