Match Info

Pacific Nations Cup - Semi-finals

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Hanazono Rugby Stadium (Higashiosaka) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport Rugby
Australia	20:05	Stan Sport
Czech Republic	12:05	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Japan	19:05	J sports 4
Mexico	04:05	Disney+
New Zealand	22:05	Sky Sport Select
Nigeria	11:05	SuperSport Rugby
Slovakia	12:05	Nova Sport 1
South Africa	12:05	SuperSport Rugby
International	10:05	RugbyPass TV


	Japan		USA

	1	X	2
	1.03	50	11
	1.04	60	9.75
	1.04	51	10	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 ↑ (1.02)	53.67 ↑ (50)	10.25 ↓ (12.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 62.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-24)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan
89.2%

Draw
1.7%

USA
9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

90.7%

1.9%

7.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

USA has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Japan - USA Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 43:19

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (35 - 14)
2', Hirose Y. (Try),
3', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
5', Stolberg M. (Try),
5', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
9', Riley D. (Try),
9', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
16', Harada M. (Try),
17', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
24', Klein S. (Try),
25', Hilsenbeck C. (Conversion Goal),
34', Lopeti T. (Try),
35', Hilsenbeck C. (Conversion Goal),
40+1', Otsuka S. (Try),
40+2', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (28 - 0)
42', Riley D. (Try),
43', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
54', Cornelsen J. (Try),
55', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
61', Haangana E. (Try),
61', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),
64', Greene S. (Try),
65', Greene S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Japan won 4.

Japan has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

USA may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Japan is the clear favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Japan won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 205:135. (average 34.2:22.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
05.09.26	Japan - Canada	57:12 ✺
15.08.26	Australia - Japan	56:17 ✺
08.08.26	Japan - Australia	32:35 ✺
Nations Championship Rugby
18.07.26	Japan - France	15:42 ✺
11.07.26	Japan - Ireland	20:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 WLLLL
- USA rugby
World Rugby Nations Cup
18.07.26	USA - Spain	29:22 ✺
11.07.26	USA - Zimbabwe	31:15 ✺
04.07.26	USA - Portugal	30:29 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
15.11.25	Romania - USA	18:26 ✺
08.11.25	Georgia - USA	43:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
06.09.25	USA - Japan	21:47
07.09.24	Japan - USA	41:24
10.08.19	USA - Japan	20:34
Rugby World Cup
11.10.15	USA - Japan	18:28
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
24.07.15	USA - Japan	23:18
14.06.14	USA - Japan	29:37

Japan - USA