Match Info

Nations Championship - Round 3

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday

Location: National Olympic Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Ireland	Virgin Media Player
Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	J sports 4
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Fox Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	TVR Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand
United-kingdom	ITV 4, ITV X, Virgin TV Go app


	Japan		France

	1	X	2
	12	30	1.03
	16.99	45.78	1.02	Watch
	8.42	38.83	1.01
	17	51	1.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	13.6 ↓ (15.07)	41.4 ↑ (37.48)	1.02 ↓ (1.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 66.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-26)

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan
6.8%

Draw
2.2%

France
91%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

6.2%

2.5%

91.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

France has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Japan - France Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 20:46

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Otsuka S.	1. Poirot J.
2. Hayate E.	2. Lamothe M.
3. Tamefusa K.	3. Montagne R.
4. Hockings H.	4. Verhaeghe F.
5. Dearns W. (C)	5. Meafou E.
6. Haangana E.	6. Nouchi L.
7. Gunter B.	7. Gazzotti M.
8. Cornelsen J.	8. Roumat A.
9. Saito N.	9. Lucu M. (C)
10. Ito R.	10. Ntamack R.
11. Ishida K.	11. Grandidier-Nkanang A.
12. Tua S.	12. Moefana Y.
13. Riley D.	13. Brau-Boirie F.
14. Ueda K.	14. Attissogbe T.
15. Matsunaga T.	15. Jalibert M.
Substitutes
16. Sato K.	16. Mauvaka P.
17. Okabe T.	17. Wardi R.
18. Sword I.	18. Falatea S.
19. Stolberg M.	19. Auradou H.
20. Leitch M.	20. Staniforth T.
21. Costley T.	21. Tixeront K.
22. Taira M.	22. Graou P.
23. Uenobo S.	23. Gourgues K.
Coaches
. Jones E.	. Galthie F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (15 - 28)
1', Lamothe M. (Try),
2', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
9', Matsunaga T. (Penalty Goal),
14', Ishida K. (Try),
15', Matsunaga T. (Missed Conversion),
18', Jalibert M. (Try),
18', Hockings H. 🟨,
19', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
22', Roumat A. (Try),
23', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
29', Lucu M. (Try),
30', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
34', Otsuka S. (Try),
35', Matsunaga T. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (0 - 14)
42', Jalibert M. (Try),
43', Ntamack R. (Conversion Goal),
50', Lamothe M. (Try),
51', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
57', Jalibert M. 🟨,
76', Gazzotti M. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, France is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Japan won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 90:172. (average 18:34.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan rugby
Nations Championship Rugby
11.07.26	Japan - Ireland	20:36 ✺
04.07.26	Japan - Italy	27:10 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
22.11.25	Georgia - Japan	23:25 ✺
15.11.25	Wales - Japan	24:23 ✺
08.11.25	Ireland - Japan	41:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWLL
- France rugby
Nations Championship Rugby
11.07.26	Australia - France	26:42 ✺
04.07.26	New Zealand - France	34:32 ✺
Six Nations
14.03.26	France - England	48:46 ✺
07.03.26	Scotland - France	50:40 ✺
22.02.26	France - Italy	33:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Rugby Union
09.11.24	France - Japan	52:12
20.11.22	France - Japan	35:17
09.07.22	Japan - France	15:20
02.07.22	Japan - France	23:42
25.11.17	France - Japan	23:23

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