Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 2

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Mayol (Toulon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, France 2
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Portugal	Sport TV7
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Toulon		Bath

	1	X	2
	1.8	21	2.1
	1.87	23	1.95
	1.84	22.06	2.05	Watch
	1.83	23	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.6)	22.27 ↑ (20.32)	2.03 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulon
50.3%

Draw
4.1%

Bath
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

4.5%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

4.5%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toulon's form might have worsened.

Bath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bath's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulon than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toulon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bath than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bath, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Toulon - Bath Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bath will win (votes: 8 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bath: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bath will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:27

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gros J. B.	1. Obano B.
2. Lucchesi G.	2. Dunn T.
3. Sinckler K.	3. Sela B.
4. Rebbadj S.	4. Roux Q.
5. Alainu'uese B.	5. Molony R.
6. Ludlam L.	6. Hill T.
7. Ollivon C.	7. Underhill S.
8. Mercer Z.	8. Barbeary A.
9. Serin B.	9. Carr-Smith T.
10. Garcia M.	10. Russell F.
11. Tuicuvu S.	11. Arundell H.
12. Sinzelle J.	12. Redpath C.
13. Brex N.	13. Ojomoh M.
14. Drean G.	14. Cokanasiga J.
15. Ferte M.	15. Carreras S.
Substitutes
16. Baubigny T.	16. Tuipulotu K.
17. Ametlla L.	17. van Wyk F.
18. Priso D.	18. du Toit T.
19. Mezou C.	19. Ewels C.
20. Abadie E.	20. Reid M.
21. White B.	21. le Roux N.
22. Smaili M.	22. Hennessey-Booth L.
23. Karaba J.	23. Green A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (18 - 13)
8', Russell F. (Penalty Goal),
12', Alainu'uese B. (Try),
13', Garcia M. (Conversion Goal),
15', Russell F. (Penalty Goal),
18', Garcia M. (Penalty Goal),
20', Hill T. (Try),
21', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
24', Garcia M. (Penalty Goal),
34', Brex N. (Try),
2nd Half (27 - 21)
46', Garcia M. (Penalty Goal),
50', Carreras S. (Try),
51', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
54', Drean G. (Try),
55', Garcia M. (Conversion Goal),
59', Green A. (Try),
59', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
65', Ludlam L. (Try),
66', Garcia M. (Conversion Goal),
73', Garcia M. (Penalty Goal),
74', Hennessey-Booth L. (Try),
75', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
80', Baubigny T. (Try),
80+1', Garcia M. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 4.

In recent matches, Toulon has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bath is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Toulon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Toulon will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 137:99. (average 22.8:16.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulon won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 65:36. (average 21.7:12).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Toulonnais
European Rugby Champions Cup
07.12.25	Edinburgh - Toulon	33:20 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Toulon - Montauban	54:28 ✺
23.11.25	Stade Français - Toulon	51:24 ✺
08.11.25	Toulon - La Rochelle	39:14 ✺
01.11.25	Toulon - Lyon	54:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLWW
- Bath Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
06.12.25	Bath - Munster	40:14 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
30.11.25	Saracens - Bath	29:36 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
22.11.25	Bath - Sale Sharks	20:0 ✺
14.11.25	Gloucester - Bath	19:17 ✺
31.10.25	Bristol Rugby - Bath	19:49 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
15.01.23	Bath - Toulon	23:35
17.12.22	Toulon - Bath	29:7
European Rugby Champions Cup
16.12.17	Bath - Toulon	26:21
09.12.17	Toulon - Bath	24:20
23.01.16	Bath - Toulon	14:16
10.01.16	Toulon - Bath	12:9

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