Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 14

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Ellis Park Stadium (Johannesburg)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Lions		Newport Gwent Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.06	41	8.5
	1.08	40	7.2
	1.09	29.46	7.83	Watch
	1.08	34	7.5
	1.12	26	6.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.09 ↑ (1.05)	34.09 ↓ (43.23)	7.52 ↓ (9.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-18)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lions
85%

Draw
2.7%

Newport Gwent Dragons
12.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

88.5%

2.1%

9.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Newport Gwent Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lions - Newport Gwent Dragons Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Lions will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 56.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 38:20

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (18 - 14)
2nd Half (24 - 12)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lions won 4.

In this match, Lions is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Lions won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 247:145. (average 35.3:20.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lions won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 173:90. (average 43.3:22.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
7	Lions	3	2	0	1	77:102	9
8	Dragons	3	1	1	1	88:83	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lions Rugby
United Rugby Championship
21.03.26	Lions - Edinburgh	54:17 ✺
28.02.26	Lions - Stormers	24:10 ✺
21.02.26	Lions - Sharks	34:22 ✺
31.01.26	Lions - Blue Bulls	17:52 ✺
23.01.26	Ospreys - Lions	24:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWLT
- Newport Gwent Dragons
United Rugby Championship
22.03.26	Stormers - Newport Gwent Dragons	29:21 ✺
28.02.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Benetton Treviso	15:15 ✺
31.01.26	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	19:13 ✺
23.01.26	Munster - Newport Gwent Dragons	22:20 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
16.01.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Newcastle Red Bulls	35:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
18.01.25	Lions - Newport Gwent Dragons	60:10
United Rugby Championship
13.10.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Lions	19:23
02.12.23	Lions - Newport Gwent Dragons	49:24
Challenge Cup Rugby
22.01.23	Newport Gwent Dragons - Lions	25:30
10.12.22	Lions - Newport Gwent Dragons	31:31
United Rugby Championship
27.11.22	Lions - Newport Gwent Dragons	33:25
21.05.22	Newport Gwent Dragons - Lions	11:21

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