Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 10

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby, URC


	Ospreys		Lions

	1	X	2
	1.5	21	2.75
	1.57	19	2.4
	1.52	20	2.6
	1.55	20.63	2.64	Watch
	1.5	21	2.63
	1.45	26	2.74
	1.5	20	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.54)	21.09 ↓ (22.61)	2.64 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 39.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospreys
60.8%

Draw
4.4%

Lions
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

4.1%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

4.4%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lions than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ospreys - Lions Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Lions will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:18

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 12)
2nd Half (5 - 12)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Lions has had a series of away games.

Ospreys could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Ospreys will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 174:165. (average 29:27.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ospreys won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 93:63. (average 31:21).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
7	Lions	3	2	0	1	77:102	9
13	Ospreys	3	1	0	2	81:107	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ospreys Premiership Select
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Ospreys - Montpellier	26:31 ✺
11.01.26	Zebre - Ospreys	23:19 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22 ✺
26.12.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	19:26 ✺
20.12.25	Ospreys - Munster	10:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLWWL
- Lions Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Perpignan - Lions	20:20 ✺
10.01.26	Lions - Lyon	42:33 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Sharks - Lions	22:23 ✺
20.12.25	Stormers - Lions	34:27 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Lions	14:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
17.05.25	Lions - Ospreys	29:28
Challenge Cup Rugby
08.12.24	Ospreys - Lions	30:14
United Rugby Championship
30.03.24	Ospreys - Lions	36:21
Challenge Cup Rugby
21.01.24	Lions - Ospreys	28:38
United Rugby Championship
24.09.22	Ospreys - Lions	27:28
25.03.22	Lions - Ospreys	45:15

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