Match Info
Challenge Cup - Round 4Date: 16 January 2026, FridayWhere to Watch on TV: | |
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 United-kingdom | BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, S4C Digital, S4C |
 World | EPCR Rugby TV |
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Newport Gwent Dragons |
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Newcastle Red Bulls |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 46.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)
- The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Newport Gwent Dragons
60.5% | Draw
4.4% | Newcastle Red Bulls
35% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Newport Gwent Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newport Gwent Dragons's performance.Newcastle Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newcastle Red Bulls might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport Gwent Dragons than the current prediction. (-16.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newport Gwent Dragons that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Red Bulls than the current prediction. (+16.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newcastle Red Bulls could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 47.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Newport Gwent Dragons will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newport Gwent Dragons will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:22 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1.  Jones W.
| 1.  McCallum M.
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2. Coghlan B.
| 2.  McGuigan G. (C)
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3.  Hunt R.
| 3. Palframan R.
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4. Woodman R.
| 4. Usher O.
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5. Carter B.
| 5. Hodgson J.
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6. Keddie H.
| 6. Lockwood F.
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7. Young T.
| 7.  Christie T.
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8. Wainwright A.
| 8. Gordon T.
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9. Hope C.
| 9.  Benitez Cruz S.
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10. de Beer T.
| 10. Grayson E.
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11. Dyer R.
| 11. Hearle A.
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12. Owen A.
| 12. Hutchison C.
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13.  Inisi F.
| 13. Arnold S.
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14. Richards D.
| 14. Wade C.
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15. O'Brien A. (C)
| 15. Obatoyinbo E.
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| Substitutes |
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16. Roberts G.
| 16. Fletcher O.
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17. Martinez R.
| 17. Brocklebank A.
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18. Dlamini C.
| 18. de Bruin L.
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19. Douglas L.
| 19. Baker F.
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20. Lewis-Hughes S.
| 20. Parsons R.
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21. Williams R.
| 21. Elliott J.
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22. Ackerman H.
| 22. Beeckmans R.
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23. Evans C.
| 23. Greenwood N.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (7 - 12)
- 31', Dyer R. (Try),
- 32', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
- 35', Benitez Cruz S. (Try),
- 37', Wade C. (Try),
- 38', Grayson E. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (28 - 0)
- 47', Hodgson J. 🟨,
- 48', Coghlan B. (Try),
- 50', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
- 55', Dyer R. (Try),
- 56', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
- 69', Gordon T. 🟨,
- 70', (Penalty Try),
- 70', Parsons R. 🟨,
- 78', Richards D. (Try),
- 79', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 2.Both teams have been playing unpredictably.Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games. In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.We predict that Dragons will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 146:179. (average 20.9:25.6).Including home matches between the teams, Dragons won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 57:75. (average 19:25).
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Challenge Cup Rugby | | | 15.12.24 | Newcastle Red Bulls - Newport Gwent Dragons | 14:22 | | 15.12.17 | Newport Gwent Dragons - Newcastle Red Bulls | 25:27 | | 14.10.17 | Newcastle Red Bulls - Newport Gwent Dragons | 32:27 | | Anglo-Welsh Cup | | | 29.01.17 | Newport Gwent Dragons - Newcastle Red Bulls | 6:18 | | Challenge Cup Rugby | | | 17.01.15 | Newcastle Red Bulls - Newport Gwent Dragons | 29:40 | | 24.10.14 | Newport Gwent Dragons - Newcastle Red Bulls | 26:30 | | LV= Cup | | | 31.01.14 | Newcastle Red Bulls - Newport Gwent Dragons | 29:0 |
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