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Current Win Probability
Newport Gwent Dragons 60.5%
Draw 4.4%
Newcastle Red Bulls 35%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
47.8%
4.4%
47.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.2%
4.1%
51.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Newport Gwent Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newport Gwent Dragons's performance.
Newcastle Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newcastle Red Bulls might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport Gwent Dragons than the current prediction. (-16.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newport Gwent Dragons that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Red Bulls than the current prediction. (+16.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newcastle Red Bulls could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
85.7%
0%
14.3%
Newport Gwent Dragons - Newcastle Red Bulls Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 47.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Newport Gwent Dragons will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%). Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newport Gwent Dragons will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:22
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Jones W.
1. McCallum M.
2. Coghlan B.
2. McGuigan G. (C)
3. Hunt R.
3. Palframan R.
4. Woodman R.
4. Usher O.
5. Carter B.
5. Hodgson J.
6. Keddie H.
6. Lockwood F.
7. Young T.
7. Christie T.
8. Wainwright A.
8. Gordon T.
9. Hope C.
9. Benitez Cruz S.
10. de Beer T.
10. Grayson E.
11. Dyer R.
11. Hearle A.
12. Owen A.
12. Hutchison C.
13. Inisi F.
13. Arnold S.
14. Richards D.
14. Wade C.
15. O'Brien A. (C)
15. Obatoyinbo E.
Substitutes
16. Roberts G.
16. Fletcher O.
17. Martinez R.
17. Brocklebank A.
18. Dlamini C.
18. de Bruin L.
19. Douglas L.
19. Baker F.
20. Lewis-Hughes S.
20. Parsons R.
21. Williams R.
21. Elliott J.
22. Ackerman H.
22. Beeckmans R.
23. Evans C.
23. Greenwood N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (7 - 12)
31', Dyer R. (Try),
32', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
35', Benitez Cruz S. (Try),
37', Wade C. (Try),
38', Grayson E. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (28 - 0)
47', Hodgson J. 🟨,
48', Coghlan B. (Try),
50', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
55', Dyer R. (Try),
56', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
69', Gordon T. 🟨,
70', (Penalty Try),
70', Parsons R. 🟨,
78', Richards D. (Try),
79', O'Brien A. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 2.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
We predict that Dragons will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 146:179. (average 20.9:25.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Dragons won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 57:75. (average 19:25).
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Jones W. 
McCallum M. 
McGuigan G. (C) 
Hunt R. 
Christie T. 
Benitez Cruz S. 
Inisi F. 
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