Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 1

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2


	Lyon		Newcastle Red Bulls

	1	X	2
	1.05	41	9
	1.05	40	9
	1.06	34	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.05 ↓ (1.08)	38.33 ↑ (34)	8.67 ↑ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-17)

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
87%

Draw
2.4%

Newcastle Red Bulls
10.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

85.1%

2.7%

12.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Newcastle Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Lyon - Newcastle Red Bulls Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 36:19

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moukoro T.	1. Brocklebank A.
2. Sarragallet M.	2. McGuigan G. (C)
3. Gomes Sa C.	3. McCallum M.
4. Geraci K.	4. Usher O.
5. Roux J.	5. Hodgson J.
6. Okuya M.	6. Gordon T.
7. Shvangiradze B.	7. Christie T.
8. Baret L.	8. Mafi A.
9. Couilloud B. (C)	9. Stuart S.
10. Jackson P.	10. Connon B.
11. Dumortier E.	11. Obatoyinbo Harrison Inumikunfayo
12. Maraku J.	12. Grayson E.
13. Regard T.	13. Hearle A.
14. Mathiron A.	14. Spencer O.
15. Meliande M.	15. Chamberlain B.
Substitutes
16. Marchand G.	16. Fletcher O.
17. Rey J.	17. Hancock C.
18. Maalo A.	18. Rewcastle M.
19. Sanson B.	19. Baker F.
20. Gouzou M.	20. Neild C.
21. Cassang C.	21. Benitez Cruz S.
22. Masi I.	22. Hutchison C.
23. Parisien A.	23. Coetzee S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 13)
8', Obatoyinbo Harrison Inumikunfayo (Try),
9', Connon B. (Conversion Goal),
15', Mathiron A. (Try),
16', Jackson P. (Conversion Goal),
27', Connon B. (Penalty Goal),
40', Connon B. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 10)
44', Shvangiradze B. (Try),
45', Jackson P. (Conversion Goal),
65', Mafi A. 🟨,
70', Christie T. (Try),
75', Spencer O. (Try),

Preview

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Lyon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lyon is the obvious favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 71:60. (average 35.5:30).

Including home match between the teams, Lyon won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 42:12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lyon OU
French Top 14
29.11.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Lyon	22:20 ✺
22.11.25	Lyon - Clermont	43:24 ✺
01.11.25	Toulon - Lyon	54:21 ✺
25.10.25	Lyon - La Rochelle	19:36 ✺
18.10.25	Montpellier - Lyon	35:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL
- Newcastle Red Bulls
English Premiership Rugby
28.11.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Leicester Tigers	17:39 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
22.11.25	Saracens - Newcastle Red Bulls	43:0 ✺
15.11.25	Northampton Saints - Newcastle Red Bulls	14:31 ✺
31.10.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Leicester Tigers	8:10 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
25.10.25	Harlequins - Newcastle Red Bulls	52:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
18.12.16	Newcastle Red Bulls - Lyon	48:29
09.12.16	Lyon - Newcastle Red Bulls	42:12

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