Match Info

Top 14 - Round 12

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 2
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Montauban		Section Paloise

	1	X	2
	3.25	23	1.36
	3.25	25	1.35
	3.23	23.26	1.4	Watch
	3	26	1.4
	3.23	29	1.36
	3.33	26	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↓ (3.7)	25.38 ↑ (21.25)	1.37 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montauban
28.8%

Draw
3.7%

Section Paloise
67.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

4.4%

70.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

4.4%

69.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montauban has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Section Paloise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montauban than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Section Paloise than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Montauban - Section Paloise Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:31

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bue T.	1. Seneca R.
2. Greyling R.	2. Rey L.
3. Pomponio F.	3. Laclayat T.
4. Uanivi T.	4. Auradou H.
5. Maafu N.	5. Maximin J.
6. Quercy F.	6. Zegueur S.
7. Fifita V.	7. Hewat R.
8. Wilkins K.	8. Gorgadze B.
9. Zabalza H.	9. Daubagna T.
10. Fortunel T.	10. Desperes A.
11. Vallee P.	11. Butlin T. R.
12. Jackson J.	12. Decron N.
13. Espeut M.	13. Brau-Boirie F.
14. Vici J.	14. Arfeuil G.
15. Mouchous B.	15. Mondinat C.
Substitutes
16. Firmin K.	16. Delhommel Y.
17. Aouf L.	17. Biziwu D.
18. Kanika N.	18. Picquette R.
19. Ringuet K.	19. Isa F.
20. Notshe S.	20. Credoz L.
21. Castel M.	21. Robson D.
22. Mathy M.	22. Carol T.
23. Simutoga V.	23. Tokolahi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 12)
4', Rey L. (Try),
18', Wilkins K. (Try),
19', Fortunel T. (Conversion Goal),
25', Fortunel T. (Penalty Goal),
32', Maximin J. (Try),
33', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
34', Vici J. (Try),
35', Fortunel T. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (0 - 41)
44', Arfeuil G. (Try),
54', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
56', Arfeuil G. (Try),
56', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
67', Delhommel Y. (Try),
68', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
74', Decron N. (Try),
75', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
78', Brau-Boirie F. (Try),
80', Brau-Boirie F. (Try),
80+1', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 in the zone Top 14 (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Montauban is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Section Paloise has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Section Paloise is the team to beat.

We predict that Section Paloise will win today's game, with odds of 1.34.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Montauban won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:55. (average 13.5:27.5).

Including home match between the teams, Montauban won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 22:24.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Montauban
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Montauban - Ospreys	22:33 ✺
06.12.25	Zebre - Montauban	41:17 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Toulon - Montauban	54:28 ✺
22.11.25	Montauban - Toulouse	7:49 ✺
01.11.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Montauban	49:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Section Paloise
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Bristol Rugby - Section Paloise	61:12 ✺
07.12.25	Section Paloise - Northampton Saints	27:35 ✺
French Top 14
30.11.25	Section Paloise - La Rochelle	53:33 ✺
21.11.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Section Paloise	33:34 ✺
01.11.25	Section Paloise - Perpignan	27:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
11.04.15	Section Paloise - Montauban	31:5
29.11.14	Montauban - Section Paloise	22:24

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