Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 1

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade du Hameau (Pau)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Portugal	Sport TV7
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Section Paloise		Northampton Saints

	1	X	2
	3.1	21	1.4
	2.9	27	1.41
	3	23	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.55)	23.67 ↑ (22.33)	1.4 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Section Paloise
30.6%

Draw
3.9%

Northampton Saints
65.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

4.1%

59.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

3.9%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Section Paloise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Section Paloise's form might have worsened.

Northampton Saints has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Northampton Saints's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Section Paloise than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Section Paloise, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Saints than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Northampton Saints, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Section Paloise - Northampton Saints Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Section Paloise will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Northampton Saints will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Section Paloise (votes: 3 - 60%). Northampton Saints (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:30

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Etchebehere A.	1. Fischetti D.
2. Rey L.	2. Wright C.
3. Zabala J.	3. Davidson T.
4. Jolmes T.	4. Coles A.
5. Picquette R.	5. Mescht JJ
6. Zegueur S.	6. Kemeny J.
7. Credoz L.	7. Pearson T.
8. Isa F.	8. Chick C.
9. Robson D.	9. Mitchell A.
10. Desperes A.	10. Smith F.
11. Laporte C.	11. Hendy G.
12. Valentino Q.	12. Dingwall F.
13. Decron N.	13. Hutchinson R.
14. Arfeuil G.	14. Ramm J.
15. Luc A.	15. Furbank G.
Substitutes
16. Delhommel Y.	16. Smith R.
17. Seneca R.	17. Iyogun E.
18. Papidze G.	18. Kundiona C.
19. Capelli M.	19. Prowse E.
20. Kpoku J.	20. Pollock H.
21. Hewat R.	21. Graham S.
22. Souverbie T.	22. James T.
23. Mondinat C.	23. Thame T.
Coaches
	. Dowson P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 12)
19', Isa F. (Try),
21', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
32', Ramm J. (Try),
33', Smith F. (Conversion Goal),
34', Arfeuil G. (Try),
35', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
36', Dingwall F. (Try),
2nd Half (13 - 23)
44', Ramm J. (Try),
48', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
50', Arfeuil G. (Try),
51', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
52', Mitchell A. (Try),
52', Smith F. (Conversion Goal),
59', Smith F. (Penalty Goal),
64', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
77', (Try),
80+1', (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Section Paloise is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Northampton Saints's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Northampton Saints may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Northampton Saints is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Section Paloise
French Top 14
30.11.25	Section Paloise - La Rochelle	53:33 ✺
21.11.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Section Paloise	33:34 ✺
01.11.25	Section Paloise - Perpignan	27:23 ✺
25.10.25	Racing Métro - Section Paloise	15:10 ✺
18.10.25	Section Paloise - Toulouse	30:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WWWLW
- Northampton Saints
English Premiership Rugby
29.11.25	Bristol Rugby - Northampton Saints	46:12 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
21.11.25	Leicester Tigers - Northampton Saints	34:22 ✺
15.11.25	Northampton Saints - Newcastle Red Bulls	14:31 ✺
01.11.25	Northampton Saints - Harlequins	26:17 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
24.10.25	Northampton Saints - Saracens	43:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWW

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