Match Info

Top 14 - Round 11

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: GGL Stadium (Montpellier)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ Sport
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Montpellier		Bordeaux Bègles

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.63
	1.52	22	2.6
	1.45	21.35	3.03	Watch
	1.55	26	2.52
	1.54	21	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.45)	22.27 ↑ (21.35)	2.69 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
61.2%

Draw
4.2%

Bordeaux Bègles
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

4.4%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.7%

4.7%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Bordeaux Bègles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Montpellier, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bordeaux Bègles than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bordeaux Bègles, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Montpellier - Bordeaux Bègles Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Forletta E.	1. Perchaud M.
2. Riccitelli R.	2. Barlot G.
3. Hounkpatin W.	3. Sadie C.
4. Chalureau B.	4. Gray J.
5. Duguid T.	5. Coleman A.
6. Camara Y.	6. Jacobs T.
7. Nouchi L.	7. Woki C.
8. Vunipola V.	8. Matiu T.
9. Price A.	9. Lucu M. (C)
10. Miotti H.	10. Jalibert M.
11. Moustin M.	11. Uberti P.
12. Anyanwu L.	12. Janse van Rensburg R.
13. Vincent A.	13. Depoortere N.
14. Ngandebe G.	14. Rayasi S.
15. Banks T.	15. Buros R.
Substitutes
16. Tolofua C.	16. Lamothe M.
17. Erdocio B.	17. Poirot J.
18. Verhaeghe F.	18. Palu B.
19. Tauleigne M.	19. Bissu B.
20. Becognee A.	20. Vergnes-Taillefer B.
21. Coly L.	21. Laharrague J.
22. Hogg S.	22. Retiere A.
23. Haouas M.	23. Falatea S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 10)
5', Rayasi S. (Try),
6', Jalibert M. (Conversion Goal),
8', Moustin M. (Try),
9', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
14', Riccitelli R. (Try),
15', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
24', Nouchi L. (Try),
25', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
39', Jalibert M. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 14)
61', Lamothe M. (Try),
62', Jalibert M. (Conversion Goal),
68', Rayasi S. (Try),
70', Jalibert M. (Conversion Goal),
72', Nouchi L. (Try),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Montpellier may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Montpellier is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Montpellier will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 406:433. (average 20.3:21.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 263:184. (average 23.9:16.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
22.11.25	Perpignan - Montpellier	0:28 ✺
01.11.25	Montpellier - Clermont	7:9 ✺
25.10.25	Stade Français - Montpellier	35:12 ✺
18.10.25	Montpellier - Lyon	35:13 ✺
11.10.25	Racing Métro - Montpellier	32:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLWL
- Union Bordeaux Bègles
French Top 14
21.11.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Section Paloise	33:34 ✺
01.11.25	Castres - Bordeaux Bègles	26:28 ✺
25.10.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Aviron Bayonnais	41:12 ✺
18.10.25	Perpignan - Bordeaux Bègles	12:27 ✺
12.10.25	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	56:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
11.05.25	Montpellier - Bordeaux Bègles	46:27
30.11.24	Bordeaux Bègles - Montpellier	9:6
09.03.24	Montpellier - Bordeaux Bègles	10:3
04.11.23	Bordeaux Bègles - Montpellier	23:13
30.12.22	Bordeaux Bègles - Montpellier	40:10
10.09.22	Montpellier - Bordeaux Bègles	29:19
18.06.22	Montpellier - Bordeaux Bègles	19:10

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