Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 17

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 1, CANAL+ Sport


	Nevers		Provence Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.8	21	2.1
	1.46	21	2.8
	1.85	20.13	2.06	Watch
	1.83	21	2
	1.81	23	2.06
	1.84	26	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.54)	22.02 ↑ (18.14)	2.17 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nevers
52.8%

Draw
4.2%

Provence Rugby
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

5.1%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.6%

5.9%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nevers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nevers's form might have worsened.

Provence Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Provence Rugby's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nevers than the current prediction. (+16.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nevers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Provence Rugby than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Provence Rugby, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Nevers - Provence Rugby Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:24

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 24)
2nd Half (7 - 21)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nevers won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Nevers may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nevers might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Nevers will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Nevers won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 372:323. (average 24.8:21.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Nevers won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 205:101. (average 29.3:14.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Provence Rugby	5	5	0	0	160:108	21
16	Nevers	5	0	0	5	122:152	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USO Nevers
French Pro D2
09.01.26	SA XV Charente - Nevers	27:3 ✺
19.12.25	Nevers - Brive	33:31 ✺
12.12.25	Oyonnax Rugby - Nevers	34:18 ✺
05.12.25	Nevers - US Dax	32:21 ✺
28.11.25	Valence Romans Drôme - Nevers	13:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLWL
- Provence Rugby
French Pro D2
08.01.26	Provence Rugby - FC Grenoble	45:15 ✺
19.12.25	Mont-De-Marsan - Provence Rugby	25:23 ✺
12.12.25	Provence Rugby - Béziers	38:18 ✺
05.12.25	Agen - Provence Rugby	27:23 ✺
28.11.25	Provence Rugby - Carcassonne	48:16 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
17.10.25	Provence Rugby - Nevers	39:33
07.02.25	Provence Rugby - Nevers	38:21
25.10.24	Nevers - Provence Rugby	15:11
07.03.24	Nevers - Provence Rugby	27:22
31.08.23	Provence Rugby - Nevers	37:34
10.02.23	Provence Rugby - Nevers	19:9
21.10.22	Nevers - Provence Rugby	26:9

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