Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 12

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 4


	Provence Rugby		Carcassonne

	1	X	2
	1.01	51	17
	1.01	50	12
				Watch
	1.02	30	14.8
	1.03	34	17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↑ (1.01)	41.25 ↓ (47.5)	15.2 ↓ (18)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-26)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Provence Rugby
91.6%

Draw
2.3%

Carcassonne
6.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

92.8%

5.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Provence Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Carcassonne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Provence Rugby - Carcassonne Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 42:16

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (8 - 13)
2nd Half (40 - 3)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Provence Rugby won 3.

Provence Rugby is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Carcassonne has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Provence Rugby is the obvious favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Provence Rugby won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 254:292. (average 19.5:22.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Provence Rugby won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 127:119. (average 21.2:19.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Provence Rugby
French Pro D2
14.11.25	Stade Aurillacois - Provence Rugby	31:32 ✺
07.11.25	Colomiers - Provence Rugby	10:12 ✺
31.10.25	Provence Rugby - Brive	25:3 ✺
24.10.25	Oyonnax Rugby - Provence Rugby	30:25 ✺
17.10.25	Provence Rugby - Nevers	39:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWLW
- US Carcassonne
French Pro D2
14.11.25	Carcassonne - Valence Romans Drôme	28:32 ✺
07.11.25	US Dax - Carcassonne	19:0 ✺
31.10.25	Carcassonne - Biarritz	23:23 ✺
24.10.25	FC Grenoble - Carcassonne	57:12 ✺
17.10.25	Carcassonne - Colomiers	13:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0.9 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
05.05.23	Carcassonne - Provence Rugby	34:14
02.12.22	Provence Rugby - Carcassonne	23:6
18.02.22	Provence Rugby - Carcassonne	24:20
08.10.21	Carcassonne - Provence Rugby	28:30
16.04.21	Provence Rugby - Carcassonne	18:34
30.10.20	Carcassonne - Provence Rugby	30:31
15.11.19	Carcassonne - Provence Rugby	19:10

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