Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 13

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ Sport


	Agen		Provence Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.44	21	2.88
	1.44	21	2.9
	1.43	20.55	3.04	Watch
	1.4	21	3
	1.47	23	2.8
	1.46	26	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.39)	22.09 ↑ (18.06)	2.9 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 43.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Agen
64.1%

Draw
4.2%

Provence Rugby
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

5.2%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

86.6%

6.7%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Agen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Provence Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Agen than the current prediction. (+22.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Agen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Provence Rugby than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Provence Rugby, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Agen - Provence Rugby Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:19

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 7)
2nd Half (17 - 16)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Agen won 1.

Agen is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Provence Rugby is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Agen is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Agen won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 147:173. (average 18.4:21.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Agen won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 84:65. (average 21:16.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SU Agen Lot-et-Garonne
French Pro D2
28.11.25	Vannes - Agen	36:15 ✺
14.11.25	Agen - Oyonnax Rugby	23:27 ✺
07.11.25	Biarritz - Agen	33:16 ✺
31.10.25	Agen - US Dax	31:0 ✺
23.10.25	Valence Romans Drôme - Agen	56:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLWL
- Provence Rugby
French Pro D2
28.11.25	Provence Rugby - Carcassonne	48:16 ✺
14.11.25	Stade Aurillacois - Provence Rugby	31:32 ✺
07.11.25	Colomiers - Provence Rugby	10:12 ✺
31.10.25	Provence Rugby - Brive	25:3 ✺
24.10.25	Oyonnax Rugby - Provence Rugby	30:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
10.01.25	Agen - Provence Rugby	10:17
30.08.24	Provence Rugby - Agen	21:18
08.02.24	Agen - Provence Rugby	31:7
25.08.23	Provence Rugby - Agen	44:9
16.02.23	Agen - Provence Rugby	23:23
26.08.22	Provence Rugby - Agen	17:19
22.04.22	Provence Rugby - Agen	26:17

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