Match Info

Top 14 - Round 13

Date: 28 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade du Hameau (Pau)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Section Paloise		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.25	26	4
	1.3	27	3.55
	1.32	25.79	3.7	Watch
	1.29	26	3.75
	1.26	26	4.03
	1.25	31	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.32)	26.97 ↑ (21.67)	3.87 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Section Paloise
72.6%

Draw
3.4%

Montpellier
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

4.2%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

3.3%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Section Paloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Section Paloise than the current prediction. (-17.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Section Paloise that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montpellier could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Section Paloise - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Section Paloise will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaulashvili L.	1. Erdocio B.
2. Delhommel Y.	2. Riccitelli R.
3. Laclayat T.	3. Japaridze L.
4. Auradou H.	4. Beard A.
5. Maximin J.	5. Duguid T.
6. Gorgadze B. (C)	6. Camara Y.
7. Credoz L.	7. Nouchi L. (C)
8. Isa F.	8. Masibaka A.
9. Daubagna T.	9. Price A.
10. Desperes A.	10. Miotti H.
11. Grandidier A.	11. Taofifenua D.
12. Decron N.	12. Piccardo J.
13. Brau-Boirie F.	13. Vincent A.
14. Arfeuil G.	14. Ngandebe G.
15. Luc A.	15. Banks T.
Substitutes
16. Rey L.	16. Tolofua C.
17. Seneca R.	17. Forletta E.
18. Capelli M.	18. Tauleigne M.
19. Zegueur S.	19. Chalureau B.
20. Hewat R.	20. Becognee A.
21. Robson D.	21. Coly L.
22. Mondinat C.	22. Darmon T.
23. Tokolahi S.	23. Hounkpatin W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (15 - 14)
2', Japaridze L. 🟨,
9', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
12', Maximin J. (Try),
12', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
20', Riccitelli R. (Try),
20', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
29', Mondinat C. (Try),
34', Maximin J. 🟨,
36', Taofifenua D. (Try),
36', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (20 - 19)
46', (Penalty Try),
51', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
59', Isa F. (Try),
59', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
61', Hewat R. 🟨,
64', Price A. (Try),
64', Coly L. (Conversion Goal),
68', Taofifenua D. (Try),
74', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
80+4', (Try),
80+5', (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Section Paloise won 3.

In recent matches, Section Paloise has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Montpellier is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Section Paloise may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Section Paloise is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Section Paloise won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 433:555. (average 21.7:27.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Section Paloise won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 278:222. (average 27.8:22.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Section Paloise
French Top 14
20.12.25	Montauban - Section Paloise	17:53 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Bristol Rugby - Section Paloise	61:12 ✺
07.12.25	Section Paloise - Northampton Saints	27:35 ✺
French Top 14
30.11.25	Section Paloise - La Rochelle	53:33 ✺
21.11.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Section Paloise	33:34 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WLLWW
- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
20.12.25	Montpellier - Castres	33:31 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.12.25	Montpellier - Zebre	31:7 ✺
06.12.25	Black Lion - Montpellier	13:24 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Montpellier - Bordeaux Bègles	28:24 ✺
22.11.25	Perpignan - Montpellier	0:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
22.03.25	Section Paloise - Montpellier	40:38
23.11.24	Montpellier - Section Paloise	30:3
20.04.24	Section Paloise - Montpellier	31:23
27.01.24	Montpellier - Section Paloise	22:17
28.05.23	Section Paloise - Montpellier	35:10
24.09.22	Montpellier - Section Paloise	43:17
05.02.22	Montpellier - Section Paloise	29:12

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