Match Info

Top 14 - Round 10

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport
France	CANAL+ France
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Stade Français		Toulon

	1	X	2
	1.14	34	5.5
	1.2	25	4.7
	1.45	18.96	3.10	Watch
	1.12	50	5.5
	1.21	26	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.45)	30.79 ↑ (18.96)	4.7 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stade Français
76.9%

Draw
3.1%

Toulon
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.9%

4.9%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stade Français has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stade Français's performance.

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toulon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stade Français than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stade Français that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulon than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toulon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Stade Français - Toulon Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -10.5 - Stade Français (1.83) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Stade Français (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alo-Emile M.	1. Brennan D.
2. Garcia A.	2. Damond P.
3. Melikidze G.	3. Sinckler K.
4. Gabrillagues P.	4. Rebbadj S.
5. Pesenti B.	5. Alainu'uese B.
6. Halaifonua T.	6. Karaba J.
7. Briatte R.	7. Ludlam L.
8. Tanga Mangene Y.	8. Mercer Z.
9. Kerr-Barlow T.	9. Le Bail C.
10. Carbonel L.	10. Garcia M.
11. Ezeala S.	11. Ferte M.
12. Nene N.	12. Sinzelle J.
13. Ward J. C.	13. Smaili M.
14. Dakuwaqa P.	14. Gracieux M.
15. Barre L.	15. Jaminet M.
Substitutes
16. Nicotera G.	16. Baubigny T.
17. Iscaro J.	17. Ametlla L.
18. Azagoh P.	18. Mezou C.
19. Macalou S.	19. Abadie E.
20. Abadie P.	20. Coulon J.
21. Marchant J.	21. Mechentel B.
22. Hirigoyen M.	22. Cowie O.
23. Alo-Emile P.	23. Narmania N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (23 - 10)
3', Carbonel L. (Penalty Goal),
7', Gracieux M. (Try),
8', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
10', Carbonel L. (Penalty Goal),
17', Ward J. C. 🟨,
22', Melikidze G. (Try),
22', Carbonel L. (Conversion Goal),
26', Garcia M. (Penalty Goal),
28', Nene N. (Try),
28', Carbonel L. (Conversion Goal),
35', Carbonel L. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (28 - 14)
43', Melikidze G. (Try),
43', Carbonel L. (Conversion Goal),
61', Ametlla L. (Try),
61', Garcia M. (Conversion Goal),
64', Barre L. (Try),
64', Carbonel L. (Conversion Goal),
74', Garcia M. (Try),
74', Karaba J. (Conversion Goal),
78', (Penalty Try),
78', Javakhia G. 🟨,
80+6', 🟨,
80+6', (Try),
80+7', (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stade Français won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Stade Français is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Stade Français won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 329:483. (average 16.5:24.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Stade Français won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 210:188. (average 21:18.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Français
French Top 14
01.11.25	Toulouse - Stade Français	29:17 ✺
25.10.25	Stade Français - Montpellier	35:12 ✺
18.10.25	Castres - Stade Français	29:24 ✺
11.10.25	Stade Français - La Rochelle	26:24 ✺
04.10.25	Perpignan - Stade Français	11:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWLWW
- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
08.11.25	Toulon - La Rochelle	39:14 ✺
01.11.25	Toulon - Lyon	54:21 ✺
26.10.25	Toulouse - Toulon	59:24 ✺
19.10.25	Toulon - Racing Métro	38:21 ✺
11.10.25	Clermont - Toulon	27:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
22.02.25	Toulon - Stade Français	24:6
22.09.24	Stade Français - Toulon	10:14
08.06.24	Stade Français - Toulon	23:20
30.12.23	Toulon - Stade Français	19:5
04.03.23	Toulon - Stade Français	30:9
26.11.22	Stade Français - Toulon	12:17
30.01.22	Stade Français - Toulon	26:24

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