Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 3

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Challenge Cup 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
France	14:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
United Kingdom	13:00	FloSports app
International	13:00	EPCR Rugby TV


	Stade Français		Exeter Chiefs

	1	X	2
	1.95	21	1.95
	1.79	23	2.06
	1.9	22.6	1.98
	1.83	23	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.5)	22.4 ↑ (21)	2 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stade Français
49.5%

Draw
4.1%

Exeter Chiefs
46.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.9%

4.4%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

4.3%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stade Français has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stade Français's form might have worsened.

Exeter Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Exeter Chiefs's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stade Français than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stade Français, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter Chiefs than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Exeter Chiefs, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Stade Français - Exeter Chiefs Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Stade Français will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Exeter will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Iscaro J.	1. Sio S.
2. Nicotera G.	2. Dweba J.
3. Alo-Emile P.	3. Tchumbadze B.
4. Gabrillagues P. (C)	4. Jenkins D. (C)
5. Turagacoke S.	5. Zambonin A.
6. Scelzo J. M.	6. Hooper T.
7. Hirigoyen M.	7. Roots E.
8. Petelo-Mapu I.	8. Fisilau G.
9. Motassi T.	9. Chapman C.
10. Foursans-Bourdette L.	10. Haydon-Wood W.
11. Etien L.	11. Brown-Bampoe P.
12. Vili T.	12. Rigg W.
13. Marchant J.	13. Slade H.
14. Laloi C.	14. Feyi-Waboso I.
15. Jonas J.	15. Woodburn O.
Substitutes
16. Garcia A.	16. Yeandle J.
17. Alo-Emile M.	17. Goodrick-Clarke W.
18. Melikidze G.	18. Roots J.
19. Pesenti B.	19. Tuima R.
20. Briatte R.	20. Pearson L.
21. Delbouis J.	21. James K.
22. Abadie P.	22. Cairns T.
23. Barre L.	23. Coen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 17)
14', Brown-Bampoe P. (Try),
15', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
34', Slade H. (Penalty Goal),
40+3', Sio S. (Try),
40+4', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (27 - 8)
45', Sio S. (Try),
51', Melikidze G. (Try),
59', Motassi T. (Try),
60', Barre L. (Conversion Goal),
64', Fisilau G. 🟨,
65', Pearson L. 🟨,
65', (Penalty Try),
68', Laloi C. (Try),
72', Slade H. (Drop Goal),
77', Barre L. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Stade Français is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Stade Français will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Français
French Top 14
03.01.26	Stade Français - Castres	33:15 ✺
27.12.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	35:34 ✺
20.12.25	Stade Français - Racing Métro	20:20 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Cheetahs - Stade Français	22:45 ✺
06.12.25	Stade Français - Cardiff Rugby	38:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLTWW
- Exeter Chiefs
English Premiership Rugby
03.01.26	Bath - Exeter Chiefs	33:26 ✺
28.12.25	Exeter Chiefs - Leicester Tigers	24:10 ✺
20.12.25	Saracens - Exeter Chiefs	24:30 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.25	Racing Métro - Exeter Chiefs	31:31 ✺
07.12.25	Exeter Chiefs - Cheetahs	42:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 LWWTW

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