Match Info

League One - Round 15

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Chichibunomiya Rugby Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath		Kubota Spears

	1	X	2
	2.06	28	1.76
	2.05	22.06	1.84
	2.1	23	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (2.04)	24.35 ↑ (18.6)	1.78 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath
44.4%

Draw
3.8%

Kubota Spears
51.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

4.9%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

5.1%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Kubota Spears has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kubota Spears than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 12)
2nd Half (3 - 15)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Suntory Sungoliath won 0.

Recent form of Suntory Sungoliath has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kubota has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Suntory Sungoliath won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 383:427. (average 27.4:30.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Suntory Sungoliath won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 190:192. (average 27.1:27.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath
Japan League One Rugby Union
04.04.26	Honda Heat - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	24:17 ✺
28.03.26	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Panasonic Wild Knights	34:36 ✺
20.03.26	Mitsubishi Sagamihara DynaBoars - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	35:32 ✺
15.03.26	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Toshiba Brave Lupus	60:21 ✺
06.03.26	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Mitsubishi Sagamihara DynaBoars	15:34 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLWL
- Kubota Spears
Japan League One Rugby Union
04.04.26	Toyota Verblitz - Kubota Spears	24:7 ✺
27.03.26	Kubota Spears - Toshiba Brave Lupus	51:7 ✺
21.03.26	Urayasu D-Rocks - Kubota Spears	35:59 ✺
13.03.26	Kubota Spears - Panasonic Wild Knights	30:32 ✺
28.02.26	Canon Eagles - Kubota Spears	10:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan League One Rugby Union
27.12.25	Kubota Spears - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	79:20
18.05.25	Kubota Spears - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	20:15
13.04.25	Kubota Spears - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	30:10
12.01.25	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Kubota Spears	26:26
04.05.24	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Kubota Spears	26:45
10.12.23	Kubota Spears - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	26:52
13.05.23	Kubota Spears - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	24:18

Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Kubota Spears: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide