Match Info

League One - Round 11

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Chichibunomiya Rugby Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	J sports 3
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath		Toshiba Brave Lupus

	1	X	2
	1.54	23	2.5
	1.58	22.69	2.52
	1.53	21	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.52)	22.23 ↑ (20.53)	2.51 ↓ (2.66)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath
59.2%

Draw
4.1%

Toshiba Brave Lupus
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

4.5%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.9%

4.4%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Toshiba Brave Lupus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toshiba Brave Lupus than the current prediction. (-3%)

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Suntory Sungoliath won 1.

Suntory Sungoliath has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Toshiba Brave Lupus's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Suntory Sungoliath may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Suntory Sungoliath will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Suntory Sungoliath will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Suntory Sungoliath won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 386:320. (average 32.2:26.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Suntory Sungoliath won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 171:121. (average 34.2:24.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath
Japan League One Rugby Union
06.03.26	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Mitsubishi Sagamihara DynaBoars	15:34 ✺
01.03.26	Shizuoka Blue Revs - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	24:57 ✺
22.02.26	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Canon Eagles	54:22 ✺
14.02.26	Urayasu D-Rocks - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	19:41 ✺
24.01.26	Panasonic Wild Knights - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	31:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWWL
- Toshiba Brave Lupus
Japan League One Rugby Union
27.02.26	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Ricoh Black Rams	14:33 ✺
21.02.26	Toyota Verblitz - Toshiba Brave Lupus	52:21 ✺
15.02.26	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Kobe Steel Kobelco Steelers	33:34 ✺
06.02.26	Honda Heat - Toshiba Brave Lupus	44:38 ✺
23.01.26	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Kubota Spears	24:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan League One Rugby Union
15.02.25	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	43:33
19.05.24	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	28:20
26.04.24	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	36:27
17.12.23	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Toshiba Brave Lupus	19:26
05.02.23	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	34:40
21.05.22	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Toshiba Brave Lupus	30:24
01.05.22	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	27:3

Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Toshiba Brave Lupus: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide