Match Info

EUROPE: European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 3

Date: 12 January 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Mayol (Toulon) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	10:00	ESPN 3
Denmark	14:00	Viaplay
Finland	15:00	Viaplay
France	14:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Iceland	13:00	Viaplay
Netherlands	14:00	Viaplay
Norway	14:00	Viaplay
Poland	14:00	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	13:00	Sport TV7
Sweden	14:00	Viaplay
United Kingdom	13:00	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
International	13:00	FloSports app


	Toulon		Harlequins

	1	X	2
	1.29	26	3.75
	1.25	23	4
	1.32	26	3.45
	1.32	27.9	3.6
	1.25	26	4
	1.3	23	3.98
	1.32	26	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.31)	25.41 ↑ (21.68)	3.75 ↑ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulon
71.6%

Draw
3.6%

Harlequins
24.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

70.7%

4.3%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.7%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Harlequins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulon than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Toulon - Harlequins Predictions

Users Predictions: Toulon will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Priso D.	1. Baxter F.
2. Lucchesi G.	2. Walker J.
3. Sinckler K.	3. Lamositele T.
4. Halagahu M.	4. Launchbury J.
5. Ribbans D. (C)	5. Hammond G.
6. Ludlam L.	6. Chisholm J.
7. Abadie E.	7. Kenningham J.
8. Isa F.	8. Dombrandt A. (C)
9. Serin B.	9. Porter W.
10. Garbisi P.	10. Smith M.
11. Villiere G.	11. Murley C.
12. Sinzelle J.	12. Northmore L.
13. Frisch A.	13. Beard O.
14. Drean G.	14. David N.
15. Domon M.	15. Green T.
Substitutes
16. Ivaldi M.	16. Riley S.
17. Brennan D.	17. Jones W.
18. Setiano E.	18. Kerrod S.
19. Alainu'uese B.	19. Cunningham-South C.
20. Rebbadj S.	20. Evans W.
21. Coulon J.	21. Care D.
22. White B.	22. Evans J.
23. Biggar D.	23. Waghorn B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 0)
2', Lucchesi G. (Try),
3', Serin B. (Conversion Goal),
25', Serin B. (Try),
26', Serin B. (Conversion Goal),
37', Chisholm J. 🟨,
39', Abadie E. (Try),
40+2', Wainiqolo J. (Try),
40+3', Serin B. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 21)
51', Porter W. (Try),
51', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
55', Walker J. (Try),
55', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
57', Drean G. (Try),
58', Serin B. (Conversion Goal),
80+1', David N. (Try),
80+1', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Toulon is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Harlequins is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Toulon is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
04.01.25	Toulon - Racing Métro	36:24 ✺
28.12.24	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulon	21:17 ✺
21.12.24	Toulon - Section Paloise	56:25 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
15.12.24	Toulon - Glasgow Warriors	30:29 ✺
07.12.24	Stormers - Toulon	14:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWWW
- Harlequin FC
English Premiership Rugby
03.01.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Harlequins	14:38 ✺
28.12.24	Harlequins - Leicester Tigers	34:34 ✺
20.12.24	Gloucester - Harlequins	14:0 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.24	Harlequins - Stormers	53:16 ✺
07.12.24	Racing Métro - Harlequins	23:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WTLWL

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