Match Info

EUROPE: European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 1

Date: 7 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Paris La Défense Arena (Nanterre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand ROA
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	Sport TV4
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Racing Métro		Harlequins

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.6
	1.53	21	2.5
	1.52	21	2.6
	1.53	21.99	2.69
	1.5	23	2.7
	1.51	18	2.73	Watch
	1.52	21	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.41)	21 ↑ (19.81)	2.63 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 42.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Métro
60.6%

Draw
4.4%

Harlequins
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

4.7%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.8%

5.2%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Métro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Harlequins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Harlequins's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing Métro than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Racing Métro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Harlequins, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Racing Métro - Harlequins Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Racing Métro will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Harlequins will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:19

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gogichashvili G.	1. Jones W.
2. Tarrit J.	2. Walker J.
3. Mazibuko L.	3. Kerrod S.
4. Palu B.	4. Lamb-Cona D.
5. Sanconnie F.	5. Lewies S.
6. Woki C.	6. Cunningham-South C.
7. Diallo I.	7. Kenningham J.
8. Joseph J.	8. Dombrandt A. (C)
9. Le Garrec N.	9. Porter W.
10. Gibert A.	10. Smith M.
11. Naituvi W.	11. David N.
12. Tuisova J.	12. Anyanwu L.
13. Fickou G. (C)	13. Northmore L.
14. Habosi V.	14. Murley C.
15. Spring M.	15. Halfpenny L.
Substitutes
16. Chat C.	16. Riley S.
17. Julien L.	17. Els J.
18. Kharaishvili G.	18. Lamositele T.
19. Baudonne M.	19. Chisholm J.
20. Zinzen N.	20. Evans W.
21. Le Bail C.	21. Care D.
22. Lancaster D.	22. Evans J.
23. Tedder T.	23. Beard O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 5)
10', Dombrandt A. (Try),
16', Le Garrec N. (Try),
17', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
40', Naituvi W. (Try),
2nd Half (11 - 7)
45', Porter W. (Try),
45', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
59', Le Garrec N. (Penalty Goal),
61', Spring M. (Try),
68', Le Garrec N. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Racing Métro won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Racing Métro could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Racing Métro will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Racing Métro to win the game is with odds 1.5.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Racing Métro won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 128:130 (average 21.3:21.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Racing Métro won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 66:92 (average 22:30.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Métro 92
French Top 14
30.11.24	Racing Métro - Toulouse	17:21 ✺
24.11.24	Stade Français - Racing Métro	40:24 ✺
02.11.24	Section Paloise - Racing Métro	23:33 ✺
26.10.24	Racing Métro - Perpignan	30:23 ✺
19.10.24	Aviron Bayonnais - Racing Métro	32:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLWWL
- Harlequin FC
English Premiership Rugby
29.11.24	Harlequins - Bristol Rugby	24:48 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
23.11.24	Saracens - Harlequins	28:26 ✺
08.11.24	Harlequins - Ealing Trailfinders	38:33 ✺
02.11.24	London Scottish - Harlequins	22:35 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
27.10.24	Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins	19:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
10.12.23	Racing Métro - Harlequins	28:31
15.01.23	Racing Métro - Harlequins	30:29
18.12.22	Harlequins - Racing Métro	14:10
20.12.20	Harlequins - Racing Métro	7:49
Heineken Cup
15.12.13	Harlequins - Racing Métro	17:3
07.12.13	Racing Métro - Harlequins	8:32

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