Match Info

FRANCE: Top 14 - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Stade de la Rabine (Vannes)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ Sport
World	FloSports app


	Vannes		Castres

	1	X	2
	1.67	21	2.3
	1.67	21	2.2
	1.69	21	2.25
	1.7	22.5	2.28	Watch
	1.62	23	2.3
	1.64	26	2.3
	1.69	21	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.61)	22.21 ↑ (19.77)	2.27 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vannes
55.2%

Draw
4.1%

Castres
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

4.7%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60%

4.9%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vannes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vannes than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castres than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Vannes - Castres Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vunipola M.	1. Walcker Q.
2. Beziat T.	2. Barlot G.
3. Tafili P.	3. Collier W.
4. Marks E.	4. Ducat G.
5. Metz F.	5. Nakarawa L.
6. Pedemonte J.	6. Babillot M.
7. Gorrissen F.	7. Delaporte B.
8. Kalamafoni S.	8. Papalii A.
9. Ruru M.	9. Fernandez J.
10. Lafage M.	10. Popelin P.
11. Nakosi F.	11. Hulleu N.
12. Arrate A.	12. Le Brun L.
13. Saili F.	13. Botitu V.
14. Rayasi S.	14. Palis G.
15. Duplenne G.	15. Dumora J.
Substitutes
16. Blanchard C.	16. Colonna P.
17. Berguet C.	17. Galisson L.
18. Desjeux M.	18. Maravat G.
19. Boulier L.	19. Cope B.
20. Augry S.	20. Arata S.
21. Le Bail J.	21. Seguret A.
22. Ayarza I.	22. Raisuqe J.
23. Medrano S.	23. Azar A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 18)
1', Popelin P. (Try),
16', Beziat T. (Try),
16', Lafage M. (Conversion Goal),
20', Fernandez J. (Penalty Goal),
31', Botitu V. (Try),
31', Fernandez J. (Conversion Goal),
34', Fernandez J. (Penalty Goal),
38', Vunipola M. (Try),
38', Lafage M. (Conversion Goal),
40', Saili F. (Try),
40', Lafage M. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (13 - 10)
52', Lafage M. (Penalty Goal),
55', Popelin P. (Penalty Goal),
57', Lafage M. (Penalty Goal),
61', Ruru M. (Try),
61', Lafage M. (Conversion Goal),
75', Colonna P. (Try),
75', Le Brun L. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation ~ Pro D2 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Vannes has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Castres is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Vannes will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Vannes
French Top 14
19.10.24	Clermont - Vannes	55:33 ✺
12.10.24	Montpellier - Vannes	26:24 ✺
05.10.24	Vannes - Racing Métro	24:27 ✺
28.09.24	Toulon - Vannes	54:19 ✺
21.09.24	Vannes - Lyon	20:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0.9 LLLLT
- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
19.10.24	Castres - Stade Français	35:13 ✺
12.10.24	Section Paloise - Castres	33:26 ✺
05.10.24	Castres - Toulouse	28:23 ✺
28.09.24	Lyon - Castres	40:38 ✺
21.09.24	Castres - Perpignan	27:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLW

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