Match Info
Six Nations - Round 5Date: 14 March 2026, SaturdayLocation: Principality Stadium (Cardiff)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Australia | Stan Sport |
Czech-republic | Nova Sport 6, Oneplay |
Denmark | Viaplay |
Finland | Viaplay |
Iceland | Viaplay |
Ireland | RTE 2, RTE News, RTE Player, Virgin Media One, Virgin Media Player |
Italy | TV8 |
Netherlands | Ziggo Sport 5 |
Norway | Viaplay |
Portugal | Sport TV7 |
Slovakia | Nova Sport 6, Voyo |
Spain | Movistar Plus+ |
Sweden | Viaplay |
United-kingdom | BBC iPlayer, BBC One, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, Virgin TV Go app |
Usa | Peacock TV Premium, Peacock |
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Wales |
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Italy |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 46.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)
- The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Wales 56.4% | Draw 5.6% | Italy 37.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Wales has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+24.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Wales's performance.Italy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-25.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Italy might be facing challenges that affect their performance.Wales - Italy Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 3 - 100%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Italy (votes: 2 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:25 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1. Carre R.
| 1. Fischetti D.
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2. Lake D. (C)
| 2. Nicotera G.
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3. Francis T.
| 3. Hasa M.
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4. Jenkins D.
| 4. Cannone N.
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5. Carter B.
| 5. Ruzza F.
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6. Mann A.
| 6. Lamaro M. (C)
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7. Botham J.
| 7. Zuliani M.
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8. Wainwright A.
| 8. Cannone L.
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9. Williams T.
| 9. Fusco A.
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10. Edwards D.
| 10. Garbisi P.
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11. Adams J.
| 11. Ioane M.
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12. Hawkins J.
| 12. Menoncello T.
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13. James E.
| 13. Brex N.
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14. Mee E.
| 14. Lynagh L.
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15. Rees-Zammit L.
| 15. Pani L.
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| Substitutes |
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16. Elias R.
| 16. Di Bartolomeo T.
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17. Smith N.
| 17. Spagnolo M.
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18. Griffin A.
| 18. Zilocchi G.
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19. Beard A.
| 19. Favretto R.
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20. Cracknell O.
| 20. Odiase D.
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21. Hardy K.
| 21. Varney S.
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22. Evans J.
| 22. Marin L.
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23. Murray B.
| 23. Allan T.
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| Coaches |
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. Tandy S.
| . Quesada G.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (21 - 0)
- 12', Garbisi P. (Missed Penalty),
- 15', Wainwright A. (Try),
- 16', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
- 26', Wainwright A. (Try),
- 26', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
- 29', Lake D. (Try),
- 30', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
- 38', Francis T. ↓, Griffin A. ↑,
- 2nd Half (10 - 17)
- 44', Edwards D. (Try),
- 45', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
- 45', Lake D. ↓, Elias R. ↑,
- 45', Fischetti D. ↓, Spagnolo M. ↑,
- 45', Nicotera G. ↓, Di Bartolomeo T. ↑,
- 45', Hasa M. ↓, Zilocchi G. ↑,
- 48', Edwards D. (Drop Goal),
- 51', Carre R. ↓, Smith N. ↑,
- 52', Di Bartolomeo T. (Try),
- 52', Griffin A. 🟨,
- 53', Garbisi P. (Conversion Goal),
- 54', Fusco A. ↓, Varney S. ↑,
- 61', Di Bartolomeo T. ↓, Nicotera G. ↑,
- 63', Cannone L. ↓, Odiase D. ↑,
- 63', Pani L. ↓, Allan T. ↑,
- 64', Carter B. ↓, Beard A. ↑,
- 68', Edwards D. ↓, Evans J. ↑,
- 69', Allan T. (Try),
- 70', Garbisi P. (Missed Conversion),
- 70', Cannone N. ↓, Favretto R. ↑,
- 70', Menoncello T. ↓, Marin L. ↑,
- 71', Mann A. ↓, Cracknell O. ↑,
- 78', Williams T. ↓, Hardy K. ↑,
- 78', Mee E. ↓, Murray B. ↑,
- 78', Spagnolo M. ↓, Fischetti D. ↑,
- 80+1', Garbisi P. (Try),
- 80+2', Garbisi P. (Missed Conversion),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wales won 2.Wales may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. Italy could have a small edge in this match.In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Wales won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 511:223. (average 31.9:13.9).
Standings
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
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| 5 | Italy | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 106:188 | 5 |
| 6 | Wales | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 76:195 | 3 |
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Six Nations | | | 08.02.25 | Italy - Wales | 22:15 | | 16.03.24 | Wales - Italy | 21:24 | | 11.03.23 | Italy - Wales | 17:29 | | 19.03.22 | Wales - Italy | 21:22 | | 13.03.21 | Italy - Wales | 7:48 | | Autumn Nations Cup Rugby | | | 05.12.20 | Wales - Italy | 38:18 | | Six Nations | | | 01.02.20 | Wales - Italy | 42:0 |
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