Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 6

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday


	West Coast		North Otago

	1	X	2
	1.14	27	5.6
	1.12	23	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↓ (1.44)	25 ↓ (28)	6.05 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

West Coast
81.2%

Draw
3.7%

North Otago
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.9%

3.3%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

3.2%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

West Coast has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in West Coast's performance.

North Otago has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and North Otago might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for West Coast than the current prediction. (-16%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with West Coast that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Otago than the current prediction. (+16.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that North Otago could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

West Coast could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that West Coast will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, West Coast won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 115:113. (average 28.8:28.3).

Including home matches between the teams, West Coast won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 96:73. (average 32:24.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- West Coast Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
12.09.25	Horowhenua-Kapiti - West Coast	27:26 ✺
05.09.25	West Coast - Wairarapa Bush	14:24 ✺
29.08.25	Whanganui - West Coast	19:38 ✺
22.08.25	East Coast - West Coast	21:80 ✺
15.08.25	West Coast - King Country	38:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLWWW
- North Otago Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
12.09.25	North Otago - Poverty Bay	59:33 ✺
05.09.25	North Otago - Thames Valley	45:36 ✺
29.08.25	East Coast - North Otago	19:48 ✺
22.08.25	North Otago - Wairarapa Bush	29:56 ✺
15.08.25	Whanganui - North Otago	39:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
20.09.19	West Coast - North Otago	18:17
28.09.18	North Otago - West Coast	40:19
20.10.17	West Coast - North Otago	24:14
14.10.16	West Coast - North Otago	54:42

West Coast - North Otago: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide