Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 4

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday


	North Otago		Thames Valley

	1	X	2
	3.91	28	1.26
	3.85	26	1.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.88 ↑ (2.6)	27 ↑ (26)	1.27 ↓ (1.51)

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Otago
23.7%

Draw
3.4%

Thames Valley
72.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

3.5%

61%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Otago has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Otago's form might have worsened.

Thames Valley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Thames Valley's recent form is better than expected.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (31 - 12)
2nd Half (14 - 24)

Preview

Thames Valley will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, North Otago won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 88:110. (average 22:27.5).

Including home matches between the teams, North Otago won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 52:43. (average 26:21.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Otago Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
29.08.25	East Coast - North Otago	19:48 ✺
22.08.25	North Otago - Wairarapa Bush	29:56 ✺
15.08.25	Whanganui - North Otago	39:21 ✺
04.10.24	North Otago - Buller	55:14
27.09.24	King Country - North Otago	32:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLWL
- Thames Valley Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
29.08.25	Thames Valley - King Country	24:20 ✺
22.08.25	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	34:35 ✺
15.08.25	Thames Valley - Mid Canterbury	34:50 ✺
18.10.24	Thames Valley - Mid Canterbury	37:29 ✺
11.10.24	Whanganui - Thames Valley	15:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
23.08.24	Thames Valley - North Otago	24:15
13.09.19	North Otago - Thames Valley	22:21
21.09.18	Thames Valley - North Otago	43:21
02.09.16	North Otago - Thames Valley	30:22

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