Match Info

Heartland Championships - 5th-8th places - Semi-finals

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	North Otago		Poverty Bay

	1	X	2
	1.35	30	3.25
	1.34	30	3.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.34)	30 (30)	3.27 ↓ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 65.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Otago
68.6%

Draw
3.1%

Poverty Bay
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

3.1%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.4%

2.9%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Otago has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Poverty Bay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Otago than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Poverty Bay than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

North Otago - Poverty Bay Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. North Otago (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 38:28

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Preview

North Otago is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Poverty Bay has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, North Otago is a strong favorite.

We predict that North Otago will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, North Otago won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 127:75. (average 42.3:25).

Including home matches between the teams, North Otago won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 93:45. (average 46.5:22.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Otago Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
03.10.25	Mid Canterbury - North Otago	47:7 ✺
26.09.25	North Otago - South Canterbury	32:29 ✺
19.09.25	West Coast - North Otago	31:38 ✺
12.09.25	North Otago - Poverty Bay	59:33 ✺
05.09.25	North Otago - Thames Valley	45:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LWWWW
- Poverty Bay Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
03.10.25	Wairarapa Bush - Poverty Bay	29:24 ✺
26.09.25	Poverty Bay - Mid Canterbury	43:47 ✺
19.09.25	Poverty Bay - South Canterbury	41:35 ✺
12.09.25	North Otago - Poverty Bay	59:33 ✺
05.09.25	Poverty Bay - Buller	38:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.4 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
12.09.25	North Otago - Poverty Bay	59:33
06.09.19	Poverty Bay - North Otago	30:34
29.09.17	North Otago - Poverty Bay	34:12

North Otago - Poverty Bay: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide