Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 8

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Whanganui		King Country

	1	X	2
	2.75	27	1.45
	2.79	27	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (2.79)	27 (27)	1.45 (1.45)

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Whanganui
33.2%

Draw
3.4%

King Country
63.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

3.4%

63.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

3.4%

64.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Whanganui has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

King Country has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Whanganui than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for King Country than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 21)
2nd Half (19 - 0)

Preview

Whanganui has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

King Country shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

King Country is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Whanganui has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 46:58 (averaging 23:29 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Whanganui against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 17:34 goals.

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	King Country	8	6	0	2	363:215	32
7	Whanganui	8	5	0	3	316:196	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Whanganui Rugby
Heartland Championships
25.09.26	Wairarapa Bush - Whanganui	37:25 ✺
18.09.26	Whanganui - Mid Canterbury	22:34 ✺
04.09.26	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Whanganui	19:17 ✺
28.08.26	Whanganui - Poverty Bay	43:15
21.08.26	Whanganui - East Coast	59:10
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLWW
- King Country Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
25.09.26	King Country - Buller	59:12
19.09.26	King Country - East Coast	52:10
11.09.26	Wairarapa Bush - King Country	38:54 ✺
04.09.26	King Country - South Canterbury	55:22 ✺
28.08.26	North Otago - King Country	32:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
26.09.25	King Country - Whanganui	24:29
04.10.24	Whanganui - King Country	17:34

Whanganui - King Country: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide