Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 5

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday


	Wairarapa Bush		King Country

	1	X	2
	2.9	30	1.4
	2.96	30	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.03)	30 ↑ (28)	1.4 ↑ (1.39)

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wairarapa Bush
31.3%

Draw
3.1%

King Country
65.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

3.3%

66.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wairarapa Bush has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

King Country has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

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Preview

In this match, King Country is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wairarapa Bush won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 127:117. (average 25.4:23.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Wairarapa Bush won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 53:49. (average 26.5:24.5).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	King Country	8	6	0	2	363:215	32
8	Wairarapa	8	5	0	3	277:250	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wairarapa Bush Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
04.09.26	Thames Valley - Wairarapa Bush	47:36 ✺
28.08.26	Wairarapa Bush - Horowhenua-Kapiti	46:31 ✺
21.08.26	Mid Canterbury - Wairarapa Bush	29:19 ✺
14.08.26	Poverty Bay - Wairarapa Bush	17:20 ✺
10.10.25	Mid Canterbury - Wairarapa Bush	21:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLWL
- King Country Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
04.09.26	King Country - South Canterbury	55:22 ✺
28.08.26	North Otago - King Country	32:31 ✺
21.08.26	King Country - Thames Valley	12:19 ✺
14.08.26	Horowhenua-Kapiti - King Country	41:45 ✺
03.10.25	East Coast - King Country	14:73
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
13.09.25	King Country - Wairarapa Bush	24:25
22.10.21	King Country - Wairarapa Bush	12:24
06.09.19	Wairarapa Bush - King Country	37:31
08.09.17	King Country - Wairarapa Bush	32:25
26.08.16	Wairarapa Bush - King Country	16:18

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