Match Info

UK Championship - Semi-finals

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: York Barbican (York)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Eurosport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Eurosport 1
Finland	Eurosport 1
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Eurosport 1
Hungary	Eurosport 1
Italy	Eurosport 1
Netherlands	Eurosport 1
Norway	Eurosport 1
Poland	Eurosport 1
Portugal	Eurosport 1
Romania	Eurosport 1
Spain	Eurosport 1
Sweden	Eurosport 1
Turkey	Eurosport 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Eurosport 1, TNT Sports 3


	Mark Selby		Shaun Murphy

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.56	2.20	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.63	2.22	Watch
	1.58	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.67)	2.28 ↑ (2.18)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mark Selby
58.7%

Shaun Murphy
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

47%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mark Selby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Shaun Murphy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mark Selby than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mark Selby that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shaun Murphy than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shaun Murphy could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Mark Selby - Shaun Murphy Predictions

Users Predictions: Shaun Murphy will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Shaun Murphy will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

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Preview

Selby is ranked World Ranking: 11. Murphy is ranked World Ranking: 9.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Selby won 2.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Selby won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 94:83. (average 5.5:4.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Mark Selby - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.63%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mark Selby
Snooker
05.12.25	Barry Hawkins - Mark Selby	2:6 ✺
03.12.25	Mark Selby - Yuelong Zhou	6:2 ✺
02.12.25	Mark Selby - Lei Peifan	6:2 ✺
16.11.25	Mark Selby - Judd Trump	5:10 ✺
15.11.25	Mark Selby - Neil Robertson	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWLW
- Shaun Murphy
Snooker
05.12.25	Shaun Murphy - Anda Zhang	6:3 ✺
04.12.25	John Higgins - Shaun Murphy	5:6 ✺
29.11.25	Shaun Murphy - Haotian Lyu	6:2 ✺
20.11.25	Zhao Xintong - Shaun Murphy	4:2 ✺
19.11.25	Ronnie O`Sullivan - Shaun Murphy	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Snooker
27.09.25	Mark Selby - Shaun Murphy	1:6
29.07.25	Mark Selby - Shaun Murphy	6:0
14.11.24	Mark Selby - Shaun Murphy	4:2
19.07.24	Mark Selby - Shaun Murphy	8:10
01.04.23	Mark Selby - Shaun Murphy	9:10
21.02.23	Mark Selby - Shaun Murphy	3:6
15.12.22	Shaun Murphy - Mark Selby	3:4

Mark Selby - Shaun Murphy: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide