Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 18

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Águilas		Linares Deportivo

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.92	3.95
	1.98	2.87	4.31
	1.95	2.8	3.9
	2.03	3.11	3.94
	1.96	2.9	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.62)	2.92 ↓ (3.25)	4.07 ↓ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Águilas
46.3%

Draw
31.3%

Linares Deportivo
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

27.8%

16.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

26.7%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Águilas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Águilas's form might have worsened.

Linares Deportivo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Linares Deportivo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Águilas than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Águilas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Linares Deportivo than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Linares Deportivo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Águilas - Linares Deportivo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Martinez C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 2 - 0, Martinez C. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 11).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Águilas is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Águilas won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Águilas won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Linares	5	2	1	2	6:7	-1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Águilas FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
04.01.26	UCAM Murcia - Águilas	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Águilas - Real Jaén	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Lorca Deportiva - Águilas	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Águilas - La Unión	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Recreativo Huelva - Águilas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTWWT
- Linares Deportivo
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
04.01.26	Linares Deportivo - Melilla	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Puente Genil - Linares Deportivo	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Linares Deportivo - Xerez Deportivo	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	CD Extremadura - Linares Deportivo	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Linares Deportivo - UCAM Murcia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
14.09.25	Linares Deportivo - Águilas	1:1
12.04.25	Linares Deportivo - Águilas	2:0
01.12.24	Águilas - Linares Deportivo	1:0
Club Friendly
04.08.21	Águilas - Linares Deportivo	0:0

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