Match Info

Challenge League - Round 30

Date: 10 April 2026, Friday

Location: Stade de la Fontenette (Carouge)

Referee: Sanli H. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2


	Étoile Carouge		Lausanne Ouchy

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.55	2.35
	2.72	3.75	2.41
	2.62	3.81	2.38	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.3
	2.59	3.45	2.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (3.46)	3.57 ↓ (3.65)	2.35 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Étoile Carouge
35.2%

Draw
25.7%

Lausanne Ouchy
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

25.2%

48.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

22.6%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Étoile Carouge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Étoile Carouge's performance.

Lausanne Ouchy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lausanne Ouchy might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Étoile Carouge that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lausanne Ouchy than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Étoile Carouge - Lausanne Ouchy Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Étoile will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Étoile (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Diallo M. M. (G) 22. Rufli V. 25. Felder V. 14. Zrankeon G. 23. Philippin R. 6. El Jaouhari M. 27. Correia O. 8. Ricardo Alves 10. Caslei B. (C) 99. Bouchlarhem T. 76. Itaitinga	19. Besson L. (G) 28. Kaloga I. 71. Malula B. 34. Sutter N. (C) 44. Lukembila H. 88. Lusuena N. 13. Bah K. 77. Tritten V. 25. Nkama J. 7. Nomel L. 11. Sartoretti M.
Substitutes
1. Antonio S. (G) 12. Boulkous N. 33. Bua K. 77. Escorza T. 88. Essiena Avang L. 24. Fankhauser S. 2. Neves D. 11. Samba T. 17. Sene O.	24. Akichi E. 43. de Oliveira L. 8. Fargues H. 10. Garcia N. 21. Mendy F. 12. Noverraz N. (G) 26. Socka Bongue L.
Coaches
Nogueira P.	Lemajic Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Kaloga I. 🟨,
35', Bah K. 🟨,
45', Itaitinga 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Nkama J. 🟨,
49', El Jaouhari M. 🟨,
50', 0 - 1, Nkama J. ⚽,
54', Rufli V. 🟨,
61', El Jaouhari M. ↓, Bua K. ↑,
62', Correia O. ↓, Sene O. ↑,
63', Bah K. 🟨,
72', Sartoretti M. ↓, Socka Bongue L. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Itaitinga ⚽,
74', Philippin R. ↓, Escorza T. ↑,
84', Tritten V. ↓, Garcia N. ↑,
89', Nomel L. ↓, Mendy F. ↑,
89', Nkama J. ↓, Akichi E. ↑,
90', Bouchlarhem T. ↓, Essiena Avang L. ↑,
90', Rufli V. ↓, Boulkous N. ↑,
90+4', Escorza T. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 1.

Étoile is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lausanne Ouchy is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Étoile: Bossiwa S. (Inactive) Harrington F. (Injury) Strohbach I. (Inactive) Walker M. (Injury)

There will not play in Lausanne Ouchy: Barbet T. (Yellow Cards) Da Silva D. (Inactive) Djoumgoue M. (Inactive) Gelato L. (Inactive) Kadima R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Étoile: Hoxha F. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Étoile won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lausanne Ouchy	9	6	3	0	17:3	14	21
8	Etoile-Carouge	9	2	3	4	8:12	-4	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Étoile Carouge
Swiss Challenge League
07.04.26	Aarau - Étoile Carouge	1:3 ✺
03.04.26	Étoile Carouge - Stade Nyonnais	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Wil 1900 - Étoile Carouge	1:3 ✺
13.03.26	Bellinzona - Étoile Carouge	0:3 ✺
06.03.26	Étoile Carouge - Aarau	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WTWWL
- Lausanne Ouchy
Swiss Challenge League
07.04.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Rapperswil-Jona	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Wil 1900	0:2 ✺
20.03.26	Bellinzona - Lausanne Ouchy	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Stade Nyonnais	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Yverdon - Lausanne Ouchy	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
28.02.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Étoile Carouge	0:1
19.12.25	Étoile Carouge - Lausanne Ouchy	1:2
30.08.25	Lausanne Ouchy - Étoile Carouge	2:0
02.05.25	Étoile Carouge - Lausanne Ouchy	1:2
31.01.25	Lausanne Ouchy - Étoile Carouge	1:0
25.10.24	Étoile Carouge - Lausanne Ouchy	1:1
27.09.24	Lausanne Ouchy - Étoile Carouge	5:1

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