Match Info

Challenge League - Round 26

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Comunale Bellinzona (Bellinzona)

Referee: Berchier L. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1


	Bellinzona		Étoile Carouge

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.2	2.32
	2.84	3.55	2.41
	2.63	3.77	2.39	Watch
	2.7	3.25	2.3
	2.78	3.48	2.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.39)	3.45 ↓ (3.48)	2.36 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bellinzona
33.9%

Draw
26.8%

Étoile Carouge
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

26.4%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

25.7%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bellinzona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Étoile Carouge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bellinzona than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bellinzona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	12.5%	50%

Bellinzona - Étoile Carouge Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bellinzona will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Étoile will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Étoile: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bellinzona (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Étoile (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Muci A. (G) 79. Shala L. 6. Trapero 4. Lopez B. 88. Mosquera D. 23. Goncalves M. 8. Rey A. 14. Bomo J. 91. Mihajlovic D. (C) 19. Sadiku A. 11. Vogt W.	1. Antonio S. (C) 22. Rufli V. 4. Strohbach I. 14. Zrankeon G. 23. Philippin R. 8. Ricardo Alves 6. El Jaouhari M. 10. Caslei B. 58. Bossiwa S. 76. Itaitinga 99. Bouchlarhem T.
Substitutes
34. Fetahu E. 77. Grano A. 45. Jaiteh M. 99. Lopez A. 10. Lymann F. 20. Mayorga J. 92. Moulin P. 5. Rizvanovic M. 22. Trochen E. (G)	12. Boulkous N. 18. Diallo M. M. (G) 77. Escorza T. 88. Essiena Avang L. 24. Fankhauser S. 2. Neves D. 11. Samba T. 17. Sene O.
Coaches
Sannino G.	Nogueira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Shala L. 🟨,
19', Bomo J. 🟨,
44', Rufli V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Rufli V. ↓, Boulkous N. ↑,
50', Mihajlovic D. ↓, Mayorga J. ↑,
53', Philippin R. 🟨,
62', 0 - 1, Caslei B. ⚽,
63', Bomo J. ↓, Lymann F. ↑,
77', 0 - 2, Bouchlarhem T. ⚽, Ricardo Alves (A),
78', Lopez B. ↓, Fetahu E. ↑,
78', Rey A. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
80', Itaitinga ↓, Sene O. ↑,
80', Caslei B. ↓, Essiena Avang L. ↑,
85', Philippin R. ↓, Fankhauser S. ↑,
87', 0 - 3, Ricardo Alves ⚽, El Jaouhari M. (A),
88', Bossiwa S. ↓, Samba T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bellinzona won 0.

Bellinzona is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Étoile has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Bellinzona: Ayala D. (Yellow Cards) Dermaku D. (Injury) Jashari E. (Inactive) Osigwe S. (Inactive) Rossier E. (Inactive) Shabani M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Étoile: Hoxha F. (Yellow Cards) Walker M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Étoile: Itaitinga (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Bellinzona won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:22. (average 1.2:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bellinzona won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Etoile-Carouge	9	2	3	4	8:12	-4	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Bellinzona
Swiss Challenge League
07.03.26	Wil 1900 - Bellinzona	3:3 ✺
27.02.26	Bellinzona - Yverdon	0:4 ✺
20.02.26	Rapperswil-Jona - Bellinzona	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Bellinzona - Vaduz	0:2 ✺
06.02.26	Stade Nyonnais - Bellinzona	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLLLT
- Étoile Carouge
Swiss Challenge League
06.03.26	Étoile Carouge - Aarau	0:3 ✺
28.02.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Étoile Carouge	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Étoile Carouge - Yverdon	2:2 ✺
13.02.26	Étoile Carouge - Neuchâtel Xamax	1:3 ✺
06.02.26	Vaduz - Étoile Carouge	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
31.10.25	Étoile Carouge - Bellinzona	2:0
04.10.25	Bellinzona - Étoile Carouge	0:3
05.04.25	Étoile Carouge - Bellinzona	7:0
22.02.25	Bellinzona - Étoile Carouge	0:0
22.11.24	Étoile Carouge - Bellinzona	2:2
03.08.24	Bellinzona - Étoile Carouge	1:1
Swiss Promotion League
06.03.22	Bellinzona - Étoile Carouge	4:1

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